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– James and David

Housing inventory is up nationwide

There are 32% more single-family listings nationwide than last year at this time, according to Housingwire’s latest update. In terms of totals, those account for 737,997 listings, up from 562,556 in 2023. This marks the highest October inventory since 2019. It’s also just slightly off this year’s inventory peak of 739,434. Here are other key data points from October:

• Inventory fell slightly on a week-over-week basis (Oct. 18-Oct. 25) from 739,434 to 737,997. The same week last year (Oct. 20-Oct. 27), inventory rose from 554,350 to 562,556.

• 39.5% of properties had recent price reductions, up slightly from 2023 (39%) but down from 2022 levels (43%)

• 11.4% more single-family homes are under contract than last year. That number totals 356,127, up from 319,464 last year, and up from 339,016 in 2022.

Our take

We were concerned that sellers would be reluctant to list their homes due to rising mortgage rates. However, this hasn’t been the case so far. Still, it’s a trend we’re keeping an eye on. We will surely monitor how the bond market responds to this week’s forthcoming labor report. We’ve already seen a nearly 70-basis-point increase in the 10-year yield since the Fed’s last rate cut. For the 10-year yield, the key threshold we’re watching is 4.40%, which we hope not to exceed.

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Where property taxes have risen the most

Property tax payments have risen nationwide by nearly 30% since 2019, reaching a median of $250 per month. The average effective tax rate now stands at 0.67%, down from 0.77% in 2019. According to Redfin, this drop reflects the fact that home prices have grown faster than local tax rate adjustments.

At the metro level, monthly property tax bills have risen in 48 of the 50 largest metros since 2019. Only two metros saw declines: Las Vegas, where taxes dropped by 4.3% to $167, and Pittsburgh, with a 1.7% decrease to $233.

Here are the top 5 metros where property taxes have increased most since 2019:

1. Indianapolis, IN: +66.7%

2. Atlanta, GA: +65.8%

3. Jacksonville, FL: +59.6%

4. Tampa, FL: +56.7%

5. Miami, FL: +48.1%

Our take

Even though the effective tax rate nationwide has declined, homeowners feel the burden of increasing property taxes because they’re paying more, in total dollars, than they previously did. However, there is a silver lining here. Property tax revenue is used to improve schools and parks, and those things can make a neighborhood more desirable, which pushes up home values. In the short term, however, agents should keep track of this metric. Home buyers often overlook property taxes when calculating their purchase.

Top 5 equity-rich zip codes

48.3% of mortgaged homes were determined “equity-rich” in Q3 2024, according to a new report from ATTOM Insights. To be equity-rich, the properties must have loan balances no greater than 50% of the estimated market value.

48.3% is slightly lower than the recent peak of 49.2% in Q2 2024. Still, year-over-year, the percentage of equity-rich homes is up 0.9 percentage points (pp) from 47.4% in 2023 and up 21.8pp from 2020. 

Here are the top 5 zip codes with the most equity-rich homes:

1. 49855 – Marquette, MI: 88.6%

2. 92657 – Newport Coast, CA: 85.7%

3. 54834 – Hayward, WI: 85.5%

4. 76115 – Fort Worth, TX: 85%

5. 92620 – Irvine, CA: 84.9%

Our take

Homeowners are in a strong financial position. The percentage of equity-rich households is rising, and according to the FHFA, only 0.3% of borrowers have negative equity in their homes. But let us be clear. There are still serious problems with the current housing market, especially in terms of housing affordability. However, the housing market remains supported by a solid base of exceptionally strong borrowers. Those lucky enough to purchase a home clearly have a vehicle for building lasting wealth.

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The news that just missed the cut

• Why this week is the best time to buy a home in L.A. 

• New luxury trend: Wealthy Americans are paying millions to age in luxe campuses

• A profile of the people who are moving in and out of California

• Demand for distressed homes is dropping

• The real estate portfolios of Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As we recommended in our last edition, agents should focus squarely on listings in 2025. In today’s competitive real estate market and post-NAR settlement world, selling a property for the highest price possible requires a strategic approach to marketing. Today, we’re giving you three tips for crafting an effective real estate listing marketing plan. In Friday’s edition, we’ll complete the series by offering three more tips. All of them are designed to help maximize a home's sale price.

1. Offer Transparent Buyer Agent Compensation

Now that we are in our post-NAR settlement world, we think openly communicating the buyer agent’s compensation should be part of any effective listing plan. When buyer agents see a competitive commission offered, they’re more motivated to show the property to their clients. This open communication demonstrates a seller's willingness to invest in a successful sale, which can result in increased interest from agents and, consequently, more buyer showings. A clear display of buyer agent compensation on all the legal marketing platforms, including but not limited to online listings, ensures transparency and attracts the widest pool of agents and buyers. We also think this is just good practice. Setting this important norm will pay dividends when you’re on the buyer’s side. 

2. Provide Convenient Access to Property Details for Buyer Agents

Another key to maximizing buyer interest is making essential property information easily accessible to buyer agents. Providing downloadable resources, like property brochures, floor plans, and high-quality images, can simplify the process for agents and increase their likelihood of scheduling showings. Agents appreciate listings with clear, organized, and easily accessible information, as it allows them to answer questions quickly and present the property to potential buyers more effectively

3. Build Excitement and Interest Ahead of the Listing Launch

Creating anticipation with a pre-launch marketing campaign is a powerful way to generate buzz. This can involve sharing teasers on social media, sending “coming soon” emails to local agents and potential buyers, and hosting VIP previews or neighborhood open houses. By building excitement before the official launch, potential buyers become eager to view the property, increasing the chances of multiple offers and, ultimately, driving up the sale price.

We’ll conclude our mini-series on Friday, but we think this is an excellent starting place. In the meantime, check out this great post from Jimmy Burgess. His video inspired our own thoughts on the matter.

To learn more about Estate Media, visit their website.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

Success in life comes from first taking ownership of your life and choices. Take action to become who you want to be. Nobody else can do it for you. 

Have a great week friends and we’ll see you back here on Friday!

– James and David