Exciting News!

We have some exciting news to share with you.

When we started this newsletter, one of our goals was to help agents reach the next level in their careers. Since then, many of you have e-mailed us asking for advice on how to break into luxury real estate. This has helped us realize there is truly a need for guidance in this area, as nothing exists on the market that provides all the important and valuable advice we have to offer.

That is, until now.

In conjunction with our partners at Estate Media, and after much preparation and hard work, we’re announcing the launch of Estate Elite! This is the most comprehensive guide out there, answering all your questions about breaking into the luxury market. We think it’s a game-changer. It will help you take that next step in your business and get you to the level of Elite Agent!

If you want more details, scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans where we break down everything this truly one-of-a-kind program has to offer.

– James and David

Forecasts of 2025 home prices

ResiClub recently compiled 2025 home price forecasts from sixteen different firms. On average, home prices are projected to rise by +3.5%. Here is a breakdown of each firm’s prediction:

• Apollo Global Management: +10.8%

• AEI Housing Center: +5.0%

• Wells Fargo: +4.9%

• Bank of America: +4.7%

• Goldman Sachs: +4.4%

• Capital Economics: +4.0%

• Fannie Mae: +3.6%

• HousingWire: +3.5%

• Morgan Stanley: +3.0%

• Zillow: +2.9%

• CoreLogic: +2.4%

• Zelman & Associates: +2.3%

• National Association of Realtors: +2.0%

• MBA: +1.5%

• Freddie Mac: +0.6%

• Moody’s: -0.4%

Our take

Zillow has had a reputation for publishing very optimistic forecasts. It need not worry about that now because Apollo has overtaken it on that front! The prediction that home prices will rise by nearly 11% is wildly optimistic. But don’t get us wrong. We’ll happily eat crow if prices rise by that much. We just don’t think it’s in the cards. Recent history suggests the average of the forecasts is a good rough guide. For instance, at the start of 2024, ResiClub reported the average home price forecast at a 2.2% increase. Now, as the year concludes, ResiClub anticipates that most home price indices will close with gains between 2.0% and 4.0%. Basically, thinking home prices will rise by about 3.5% next year isn’t an unreasonable bet.

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Listings are staying on the market longer

The typical home stayed on the market for 62 days in November, 11 days longer than last year at this time. That’s according to Realtor.com’s market update. Here’s what else they report from November:

• The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.84%. Realtor.com forecasts that it will average around 6.3% in 2025. Between 2013 and 2019, it averaged 4%. 

• Home prices averaged $416,880, down 0.7% YOY

• 16.7% of home listings cut their asking prices, down 1.3% from last year.

• Active listings rose 26.2% YOY

• New listings rose just 2% YOY

• Markets in the South saw the biggest year-over-year housing inventory increase:

  • South: +34.8% 

  • West: +29.2%

  • Midwest: +18.9%

  • North: +9.7%

Our take

62 days is a long time for a listing to stay on the market. Even though that’s five days less than the average November days-on-market between 2017 and 2019, we’re not going to sugarcoat it. Agents should tell their sellers to brace themselves for longer waits on house closings. On the flip side, this is a great opportunity for buyers. They have a chance to take their time, explore their options, and make thoughtful decisions without feeling rushed.

Housing markets most vulnerable to decline

50 counties around the U.S. are highly vulnerable to housing market declines. Two-thirds of them are in California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. That’s from ATTOM’s latest Special Housing Market Impact Risk Report. Its conclusions are based on factors such as housing affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, home equity measures, and rates of unemployment. 

Here are the most at-risk counties, according to ATTOM:

1. Cook County, IL

2. Kane County, IL

3. Kendall County, IL

4. McHenry County, IL

5. Will County, IL

6. Lake County, IN

7. Kings County, NY

8. Manhattan County, NY

9. Essex County, NJ

10. Passaic County, NJ

Our take

While home prices are expected to rise nationwide, some markets are poised to experience price declines. Identifying these at-risk areas is crucial, and this report gives us that insight. We couldn’t cover every detail here, so we encourage you to read the full report. It dives deep into state-by-state and county-by-county analysis. Despite the sobering nature of the topic, this information is invaluable for agents to have on hand when advising clients, or anyone for that matter.

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The news that just missed the cut

• What clients are told to expect from listing agents

• Bain Capital’s $300M investment into the build-to-rent housing market

• Office-to-residential conversions are gaining traction

• The biggest mistake agents make in their CRM

• Compass is buying Christie’s International Real Estate

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As we said up top, with our friends and partners at Estate Media, we’ve created Estate Elite, our truly one-of-a-kind coaching, training, and network-building program to not only help you break into luxe real estate, but master it! Our goal is to turn you into an Elite Agent. Here is a brief overview of everything this program has to offer:

What do you get when you join Estate Elite? — The short answer: a ton! Members get exclusive access to courses, expert coaching, and a powerful network of agents across the country. You will gain insider knowledge, business tools, and direct access to industry leaders, all in one place.

What are some of the courses offered? — The courses are wide-ranging to help you build all aspects of your business. We teach you to cultivate buyers, negotiate deals, and adopt a luxury mindset that will help you reach the top of this industry. Here are just a few of the courses we offer:

• How to Build a Powerful Personal Brand

• How to Supercharge Your Social Media & Marketing Presence

• How to Justify Your Value & Negotiate Commissions

• How to Build Your Own Team of Superstar Agents

• How to Change Brokerages While Maintaining Relationships

• How to Level Up to High-End Luxury Listings

• How to Prepare for Market and Regulatory Changes

Are there other benefits of joining Estate Elite? — Yes! Here is a detailed list of the other benefits that members receive:

• Our step-by-step playbook for breaking into luxury with more than 12 hours of market-proven courses from experts Josh Flagg, Tracy Tutor, Glennda Baker, and us.

• Two weekly live Q&As with Estate Elite coaches, providing you real-time access to proven market leaders and the brightest minds in luxury real estate.

• Access to an exclusive network of Estate Media experts, coaches, top agents, industry peers, and vetted community members who share strategies, exchange insights, collaborate on deals, all through either our private member directory and referral network, or in our dedicated Slack space.

• Invitations to private sessions in Beverly Hills and quarterly in-person panels where you get to have personal interactions with experts who can give you individualized insights to boost your career.  

• Our Elite Toolkit of tailored tech solutions which can power your business with access to free and discounted resources like market intelligence, CRM systems, and expert guidance to optimize your back office for today’s competitive market.

How does Estate Elite differ from what else is on the market? – We don’t think there is anything else on the market that offers this kind of direct access to proven industry leaders. Estate Elite allows you to connect with multiple top luxury agents, get specialized training, attend live events, join a private community, and receive the comprehensive support you need to succeed in luxury real estate. Honestly, we wish we had something like this when we were starting out! 

If you’re ready to take your real estate career to the next level, we urge you to join. Nobody is going to transform your life other than you. Decide to invest in yourself. You’ll be amazed at what happens when you do. 

Learn from the Best in Luxury Real Estate!

Elevate your real estate career with Estate Elite! Along with top agents Josh Flagg, Tracy Tutor, and Glennda Baker, get direct coaching from us, James Harris and David Parnes. Gain VIP access to exclusive training courses, live interactive workshops, and a powerful network. Transform your skills in personal branding, marketing, negotiations and much more.

When you join, we’ll teach you how to become an Elite Agent. You’ll learn:

– How to Build a Powerful Personal Brand
– How to Supercharge Your Social Media & Marketing Presence
– How to Justify Your Value & Negotiate Commissions
– How to Build Your Own Team of Superstar Agents
– How to Change Brokerages While Maintaining Relationships
– How to Level Up to High-End Luxury Listings
– How to Prepare for Market and Regulatory Changes

Gain insider knowledge, industry tools, and direct access to leaders in the field—all in one destination. Don’t just sell luxury—live it, breathe it, and master it with Estate Elite. Transform your career today!

Join us today!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

That’s a wrap on this edition of The Blueprint!

Remember: each day is a gift and a new opportunity to lead the life you want and to become the person you want to be. The mistakes and missteps you’ve made in the past don’t define you. Live as intentionally as you can and be ruthlessly focused on the goals you’ve set out to achieve. You can do it!

Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

– James and David