An unexpected surge

In the real estate business, it’s rarely all good news or all bad news, and today’s newsletter is a perfect example.

The good news: new home sales just saw a jump like we haven’t seen in three years. 

The not-so-good news: the existing home sale market is seeing stagnation like we haven’t seen in thirty years.

We break it all down below, and explain why we must not rush to conclusions over some of these numbers.

But… if there is something we would like you to rush to do, it’s to check out our latest episode of Rise Above the Ranks. We have a terrific conversation with Chris Heller, who is one of the most dominant agents, not just in the country, but the continent!

We dig into a bunch of good subjects, including A.I. and the ways it will and won’t affect our industry.

With that, let’s dig into today’s Blueprint!

– James and David

New home sales unexpectedly surge in August

In August, sales of newly built homes jumped 20.5% month-over-month, marking the largest monthly gain since August 2022, and reaching their highest level since January 2022, according to the U.S. Census via CNBC. Here’s other key data from August:

• Sales were up 15.4% YoY, even as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered around 6.63% throughout the month.

• Private sector surveys showed a smaller sales increase of 6% YOY

• The median price of a new home sold was $413,500, up 1.9% YOY

• New home sales were strongest in the Northeast and South, where homebuilding is busiest. Meanwhile, though sales did rise in the West, high prices made the region have the weakest sales numbers nationally.

Our take

The numbers look impressive, but it’s important to note: the margin of error for new home sales is large. We’ll need to wait for revisions next month, and the September report will give a clearer picture. Until then, this is certainly a welcome sign, but we will wait to see if these gains really are as impressive as they look.

Existing-home sales on track for weakest year in three decades

Existing-home sales were flat in August, coming in at 4 million units on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis. That’s down 0.2% month-over-month and up 1.8% year-over-year. But the main headline: this matched the slowest sales annual rate since 1995, continuing to put the home resale market “on track for one of its worst years for sales in three decades, unless activity picks up this fall”, as realtor.com notes in its report.

Here are the other important takeaways from August:

• Mortgage rate lag: August closings reflect deals signed in June and July, when rates were ~50 basis points higher. The September rate drop won’t show until next month’s data.

• Luxury leads, entry-level lags: $1M+ sales rose 8% year-over-year, while sub-$100K sales fell more than 10%.

• Regional split: The Midwest led thanks to prices 22% below the national median, while the Northeast was weakest.

• Inventory pullback & pricing trend: Supply fell 1.3% from July as delistings spiked, though inventory is still up 12% YOY. Existing homes sold at a premium to new homes for the fifth straight month ($422,600 vs. $413,500).

• Buyer mix shift: Homes averaged 31 days on market (up from 26 last year). First-time buyers stayed low at 28%, while all-cash deals rose to 28% of sales.

Our take

As the report notes, this is on track to be the weakest year for existing-home sales in three decades. Entry-level buyers are being deterred by elevated mortgage rates, limited affordable inventory, and rising delistings. Tight supply has kept prices from falling, with existing homes now selling at a premium to new construction for the fifth straight month. Agents should know that while affordability pressures will sideline first-time buyers, demand at the top end is holding strong. The clearest opportunities lie with move-up buyers, cash-heavy investors, and clients in regions where relative affordability (like the Midwest) is creating momentum.

August’s most expensive home sales

In August, 10 U.S. luxury homes sold for more than $25 million, led by Florida with four of the top deals. The priciest sale was a $48 million Beverly Hills estate once owned by billionaire developer Rick Caruso, followed by a $44 million mansion in Greenwich, CT. 

Celebrity-linked properties also made the list, including homes once owned by Rosie O’Donnell in Miami Beach and Julia Roberts in Kauai. Despite rising climate risks and insurance costs, coastal Florida remains a magnet for ultra-wealthy buyers, while record-setting sales continue across other prime markets nationwide.

Here were the most expensive home sales in the country in August, along with their sale prices:

1. 912 Benedict Canyon Dr., Beverly Hills, CA 90210: $47.5 million 

2. 214 Clapboard Ridge Rd., Greenwich, CT 06831: $43.5 million 

3. 1013 Lakeshore Blvd., Incline Village, NV 89451: $37.5 million

4. 43 Star Island Dr., Miami Beach, FL 33139: $36 million

5. 33 Arvida Pkwy, Coral Gables, FL 33156: $34 million 

6. 109 E. 79th St., Unit 16, New York, NY 10075: $33 million

7. 68 La Gorce Circle, Miami Beach, FL 33141: $32.7 million

8. 419 Sheridan Rd., Winnetka, IL 60093: $31.3 million

9. 1200 S. Ocean Blvd., Manapapan, FL 33462: $28 million

10. 5-8192 Kuhio Hwy, Hanalei, HI 96714: $27.6 million

Our take

Ultra-luxury buyers remain unfazed by broader market headwinds. Florida continues to dominate despite mounting climate and insurance risks, proving that lifestyle, prestige, and coastal cachet still command a premium. For agents, this underscores two key realities: 1) buyers at this level are motivated less by financial caution and more by access, exclusivity, and legacy, and 2) celebrity or developer ties can add instant marketing value. In the high-end space, storytelling sells as much as square footage. Agents should lean on narratives of pedigree, location, and lifestyle to position properties for maximum impact.

The news that just missed the cut

• What the Compass deal means for how homes are bought and sold

• Mortgage rates move closer to 6% — and the forecast is getting sunnier

• Learn how this agent set 10 listing appointments in 11 days

• Ultra-rich are pulling back from stocks and real estate, says Tiger 21 founder 

• Wealthy buyers keep snapping up $1M+ homes despite tariff worries

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

We just dropped another terrific episode of our podcast, Rise Above the Ranks. In this episode, we sat down with Chris Heller, who has sold more than 100 homes every year for the past two decades, and was the #1 Keller Williams associate in all of North America. Together, we explore how AI is revolutionizing the real estate industry. It’s a wide-ranging and deeply insightful conversation, and here’s a taste of what you’ll get from the conversation:

1. How to leverage AI for smarter consumer insights – AI isn’t just a buzzword; it’s being used right now to track consumer behavior, recommend properties, and improve lead matching. Chris described how AI tools like mavoto.com personalize listings and how call-center algorithms ensure clients connect with the right agent or loan officer. For agents, the actionable step is to embrace platforms that help filter, analyze, and act on consumer data faster. Doing so gives you an edge in speed, relevance, and customer satisfaction.

2. How to unlearn outdated habits –  Chris discusses how many agents cling to past strategies that no longer work in current markets. What succeeded in a hot cycle often fails in a tech-driven, data-rich one. To stay competitive, agents must consciously “unlearn” yesterday’s playbook and instead adapt their workflows to today’s realities. This means being flexible, testing new methods, and quickly discarding what no longer drives results.

3. How to narrow your focus to avoid burnout – With so many tools, platforms, and distractions, overwhelm is inevitable unless agents simplify. Chris emphasized that top producers stay disciplined by narrowing their focus—scheduling key activities, setting aside time for tech learning, and sticking to daily priorities. Winning the morning and creating dedicated learning slots keeps you in control while still evolving with industry shifts. This clarity of focus is what separates consistent high performers from those who stall out.

4. How to double down on authentic relationships – Even as technology accelerates, the human element only grows in importance. Chris predicted that in five to ten years, successful agents will be the ones who excel at meaningful relationship-building—not just adding names to databases, but genuinely engaging with clients. Tech should free up time for more face-to-face conversations, not replace them. Agents who master the blend of leveraging AI while deepening trust and integrity will thrive in the future marketplace.

We hope you love the episode and gain from it as we did. Watch it here and tell us what you think of it.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

Choose how you spend your time wisely, friends. Your choices, not fate, determine what you become in life.

Have a wonderful weekend, and we’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

– James and David