For our Los Angeles readers

These past few days have truly been unlike any we have seen here in Los Angeles. In our industry, we know first-hand how hard people work to purchase a home, and how much pride they take in those homes, so it just pains us to see what is happening. It is truly devastating.

But we also want to offer a helping hand. That is why we want to use this newsletter to offer advice to agents and their clients in the Los Angeles area who might need guidance on which steps to take from here.

In today’s Foundation Plans below, we give an overview of the options for disaster relief that may help either you or someone you know. We will do our best to continue to offer our best information and guidance.

Our hearts are with all of you.

– James and David

Predicting housing starts for 2025

On average, housing starts (which includes both single-family and multifamily units) are expected to total around 1.39 million in 2025. That’s according to ResiClub’s analysis of 11 construction forecasts tracked by the real estate news outlet. Here are the individual forecasts:

1. NAR: 1.45M

2. PNC Bank: 1.43M

3. Moody’s: 1.43M

4. Goldman Sachs: 1.41M

5. Capital Economics: 1.41M

6. Mortgage Banker’s Association: 1.4M

7. Bank of America: 1.39M

8. Zonda: 1.38M

9. Wells Fargo: 1.33M

10. Fannie Mae: 1.33M

11. National Association of Home Builders: 1.33M

Our take

During the pandemic housing boom, remote work, stimulus, and low mortgage rates drove housing starts to high levels. For reference, housing starts hit nearly 1.6M in 2021, which was up 15.6% from 2020. However, labor shortages and supply chain delays slowed construction, reducing single-family starts. Later, rising mortgage rates and market shifts led to a decline in multifamily starts. This survey of construction forecasts gives us a very good idea of where housing starts are headed this year, which is invaluable given that the best deals will come from new construction homes.

We have an exclusive offer for all of our readers! Save up to $3,000 off of BoldTrail Pro when you check out BoldTrail, our game-changing CRM that powers our business. It offers:

• smart CRM tools

• lead generation

• customizable IDX websites

Whether you’re focused on growing your business or just want to streamline day-to-day tasks, BoldTrail’s got you covered. Plus, it’s flexible enough to fit any business model. Want to see how it works? Click here to save up to $3,000 off of BoldTrail Pro.

Mortgage rates rise after strong jobs report

256,000 jobs were created in December, many more than the 150,000 expected by forecasters. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down from 4.2% to 4.1%. That’s according to the latest jobs report from the BLS.

This reinforces the likelihood that the Fed will postpone further rate cuts until late 2025, although Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan are projecting two cuts this year. Uncertainty around the neutral rate—the interest rate that neither stimulates nor slows the economy—has prompted the Fed to signal a slower pace of cuts. Strong economic data and potential policy shifts from the incoming administration could fuel inflation. Futures markets now reflect this outlook, pricing in only one rate cut for mid-2025.

Our take

We are in a period of heightened uncertainty and flux right now, as the new presidential administration could bring policy changes that drive significant rate volatility. Recently, mortgage rates and yields on the 10-year treasury have spiked following the latest job numbers. They’re likely to stay high unless economic data or new policies lead bond markets to expect further Fed rate cuts. While an inflation report is due next Wednesday, weaker economic data seems unlikely. Since the pandemic, Q1 figures have consistently been strong partly because typical seasonal adjustments haven’t been effective.

Ranking the top mortgage data providers

ATTOM has recently published its survey of the best mortgage data providers in the country. By “mortgage provider,” they’re referring to services that give access to loan data, including loan positions, recorder deed data, sales prices, property transfers, foreclosures, and more.  

Setting aside ATTOM’s own mortgage service, here are the top providers:

1. Warren Group

2. Experian

3. Moody’s Analytics

4. Fannie Mae

Our take

It may not be obvious when you first become an agent, but you quickly realize that mortgages power our industry. Without them, homes sit idle and don’t get sold, except for the ultra-luxury market. Whether you’re a real estate broker looking to provide advice and guidance to your clients, or a refinancing lender looking to target homeowners, you need to stay on top of what’s happening in the mortgage and lending industry. That is especially true this year, as mortgage rates have spiked even though interest rates have actually gone down. It’s essential that every agent understand these dynamics and be prepared to explain them to their clients.

The news that just missed the cut

• Marshall Plan to rebuild L.A.  

• Letter from L.A.’s top agents call on CA Governor and LA Mayor to ease restrictions

• How Jonathan Spears closed over $2 billion in sales

• Why homes are piling up in the Florida market

• Rent-to-own startup Divvy Homes is being bought by Brookfield Properties

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As the wildfires continue to ravage the greater Los Angeles area, Southern California's real estate landscape is facing significant challenges. Lives have been lost, homes and neighborhoods have been destroyed, and sadly, this disaster is nowhere near over.

Amid the devastation, discussions about rebuilding are already underway, with ideas like "L.A. 2.0" and a Marshall Plan-style effort gaining traction. Since these developments will profoundly impact SoCal real estate, we want you to know that in addition to providing you with brokerage tips and advice, we’ll be offering insights, strategies, and up-to-date information to help Los Angeles area agents and clients navigate this rapidly evolving landscape. 

In today’s edition, we will give some concrete advice for those residents affected by the fires. Here are action steps you can take.

1. Apply for disaster assistance through FEMA – Go to disasterassistance.gov or download FEMA’s app and apply for individual assistance. Each household gets $770 whether you rent or own. To qualify, you don’t need to have lost your home. Instead, you simply need to reside in a disaster zone. Although most of L.A. is considered a disaster zone, you can enter your zip code on the site to double-check.  

2. File a claim with your renter’s or homeowner’s insurance – If you experienced any damage or loss, file a claim with your renter’s or homeowner’s insurance company as soon as possible. These are reviewed on a first-come, first-serve basis. If you can safely get back to your home to assess the damage, that’s great. If not, just give an estimate and change it later. What’s imperative is that you file your claim quickly and secure your place in the queue.    

3. File a claim with your fire insurance –  If you have a separate fire insurance policy, file it immediately. To allay some concerns we’ve seen on social media, we want to tell you that the California Insurance Commission has “banned insurance companies from canceling or not renewing policies for homeowners affected by the Palisades and Eaton fires for one year” backdated to October 9, 2025.  

4. Use an SBA disaster loan if it makes sense in your situation – If you don’t know already, the Small Business Administration provides low-interest rate disaster assistance/recovery loans. If you’ve lost a home, the interest rate is about 2.5% on a home disaster loan, and 4% on a business disaster loan. Once approved, the SBA usually pays out within weeks as opposed to months, as insurance companies do. They pay up to about $500,000 to take care of your expenses. We’re not mortgage lenders or advisors, so do your due diligence to make sure this option is right for you. If it does work, it’s a great option.

We’re just at the start of the rebuilding process, and there is a lot more that needs to be done. In the meantime, if you know anyone who needs this advice, please share it with them, along with this list of resources.  Now truly is the time for us to come together, especially those of us in the real estate community.

Learn from the Best in Luxury Real Estate!

Elevate your real estate career with Estate Elite! Along with top agents Josh Flagg, Tracy Tutor, and Glennda Baker, get direct coaching from us, James Harris and David Parnes. Gain VIP access to exclusive training courses, live interactive workshops, and a powerful network. Transform your skills in personal branding, marketing, negotiations and much more.

In fact, on January 16th, 2025, this Thursday we will be leading a masterclass on “How to Protect Your Commission When Buyers/Sellers Ask for Discounts” to members of Estate Elite.

In this masterclass, we will cover:

• Understanding Why Clients Ask for Discounts

• Setting Clear Expectations from the Start

• Explaining the Risks of Discounting Commission

• Offering Alternatives to Commission Discounts

• Leveraging Your Reputation and Results

• Explaining the Long-Term Financial Impact of Your Services

• Understanding When to Compromise and When to Walk Away

• Handling Discount Requests in Competitive Markets

• Handling Repeat Clients and Referrals with Commission Requests

Normally, the program is $1500, but with the current special offer, you can receive 25% off your 2025 membership. Join now and take action to make 2025 your breakthrough year in luxury real estate.

Gain insider knowledge, industry tools, and direct access to leaders in the field—all in one destination. Don’t just sell luxury—live it, breathe it, and master it with Estate Elite. Transform your career today!

Join us today!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

We will be hosting our masterclass for Estate Elite members this Thursday, January 16th. If you are looking for some guidance to help you get focused for the new year, we encourage you to sign up. It’s a great way to get yourself in the right mindset and sharpen your plan of action for your business. You can still get a 25% discount on your Estate Elite membership by clicking here. As you’ll see, access to the masterclass is just one of the many tremendous benefits of joining. We hope to see you there on Thursday!

Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you back here on Friday!

– James and David