Starting next year strong

Welcome to the final edition of The Blueprint for 2024. We have so enjoyed getting to go through all the ups, and yes, even the downs, of the real estate business with you. In this edition, we’ll be giving you our top predictions for what we see happening in 2025.

But if there’s one thing we truly want to see, for all our readers, it’s success in this industry. That is why we want to remind you about the new luxury real estate program we just launched, Estate Elite.

If you are looking to take your career to the next level in 2025, we truly cannot recommend a better program. This is nothing else like it out there. 

While you get many benefits that you can read about here, one of the best has got to be the direct one-on-one coaching you can get from top agents like Josh Flagg, Tracy Tutor, Glennda Baker, and us. You’ll also get access to the in-depth masterclass we are teaching in January (see details in today’s Foundation Plans below).

Now is a great time to sign up. If you are one of the first 50 members to join, you will receive this special offer of 25% off your membership.

Start the new year strong.

Until then, let’s close out this year and this final 2024 edition of The Blueprint!

– James and David

Our Top Predictions for 2025

1. “Housing bubble” alarmists will be proven wrong – We know some people out there truly believe there’s a housing bubble. Well, we are going to burst their bubble. We not only don’t believe it, we find the suggestion implausible. Yes, we will likely see continued price growth and higher-than-expected mortgage rates, but that’s all. There is no price bubble in sight. 

2. Mortgage rates will remain elevated – Mortgage rates are projected to stay in the high 6% range throughout 2025, with weekly averages hovering near 6.8%. If President-elect Donald Trump implements significant tax cuts and tariffs while the economy remains strong, the Federal Reserve will only lower its policy rate twice next year. That means we’ll still see elevated mortgage rates. Tariffs could fuel inflation, and additional tax cuts may increase the U.S. deficit, both of which would contribute to higher rates. This will be a key factor in making homeownership less affordable for the average buyer.

3. Luxury market sales will not be affected by high mortgage rates – The luxury sector and the broader market are basically two separate worlds. Affordability challenges that dominate the general market are far less relevant in the luxury sector, where cash transactions make up at least half of all sales. Looking to the future, wealth transfers will play a pivotal role over the next decade, especially as Millennials and Gen X stand to inherit substantial assets. This trend will be one to watch closely. Over the next 10 years, $31 trillion will be transferred by 1.2 million wealthy people. We’ll be keeping a watchful eye on that.

4. Home prices will grow by 2.6% on average – Home value growth projections for 2025 vary across the board. Zillow anticipates a 2.3% increase, while Realtor.com and Redfin forecast slightly higher gains of 3.7% and 4.0%, respectively. Wells Fargo offers the most optimistic outlook, predicting a 4.9% rise, whereas the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) remains the most cautious, projecting just 1.5% growth. When you boil them all down, you get to an average of 2.6%. That generally sounds like a safe bet.

5. Housing inventory will rise – We believe the effects of the rate-locked phenomenon will linger into 2025. Nonetheless, most analysts agree that housing inventory will continue to grow next year, building on this year’s trends. HousingWire is projecting annual growth of 13%, followed by Bright MLS at 12.5% and Realtor.com at 11.7%.

6. New construction will gain market share and buyer incentives will continue – We think this one is a lock. Homebuilders will increase their market share as they continue to offer concessions, such as below-market mortgages and rate buydowns. We don’t see these buyer incentives going away anytime soon, especially since large builders like Lennar and D.R. Horton prioritize pace over price. Whether smaller builders do the same will be key to watch. 

7. Home sales will increase next year, totaling on average about 4.47 million sales  – The housing market is set to close 2024 with just 4 million home sales nationwide, the slowest pace since the 2008 financial crisis. While sales are projected to rise to approximately 4.47 million next year, this remains well below historical norms. For context, the past two decades have seen an average of 5.15 million annual home sales, with a peak of 7 million in 2005. Among projections for next year, Realtor.com is the most conservative, forecasting 4.07 million existing home sales. Following closely are Fannie Mae at 4.176 million and Wells Fargo at 4.187 million. On the optimistic side, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts 4.47 million sales, with Bright MLS and Zillow forecasting 4.4 million and 4.3 million, respectively.

8. Many investors are going to buy at least one more property next year – 76% of single-family investors say they are “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to purchase at least one investment property in the next 12 months, up from 60% who expressed the same sentiment last quarter. Single-family investors remain cautiously optimistic, though their outlook is tempered by concerns over rising costs and higher interest rates. To address these challenges, many are expected to focus on strategic acquisitions, maintaining their flexibility to adapt to shifting market conditions. With rents projected to increase next year, investor activity is likely to accelerate, creating valuable opportunities for real estate agents to put themselves at the center of these transactions.

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Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

With this being our last edition for the year, we wanted to leave you with a few parting thoughts before we jump into 2025. 

As we noted above, next year holds a lot of promise, but it also will be challenging. Bond markets are very uncertain about the new administration’s plans and the pace of the Fed’s rate cuts. As a result, the yield on the 10-year treasury is above 4.5% and the mortgage rate for the 30-year fixed is now above 7%. Inventory and home sales are both going to rise, but stay well below historical norms. 

However, the luxury sector is not going to be affected by the affordability issues that consume the broader housing market. Nearly half, if not more, of the deals are going to be done in cash. This is a big reason why so many agents want to break into the luxury market.

That’s where we think our new program, Estate Elite, can really take your real estate career to the next level. We believe there isn’t another program like it. Again, in case you missed it, here is a brief overview of what you will receive when you sign up.

We also want to tell you about the masterclass we will be leading on January 16th, 2025. As part of Estate Elite, we’re going to teach members “How to Protect Your Commission When Buyers/Sellers Ask for Discounts.”

In this masterclass, we will cover:

• Understanding Why Clients Ask for Discounts

• Setting Clear Expectations from the Start

• Explaining the Risks of Discounting Commission

• Offering Alternatives to Commission Discounts

• Leveraging Your Reputation and Results

• Explaining the Long-Term Financial Impact of Your Services

• Understanding When to Compromise and When to Walk Away

• Handling Discount Requests in Competitive Markets

• Handling Repeat Clients and Referrals with Commission Requests

We know that’s a lot to cover, but it’s all for good reason–it opens the door to incredible growth. These are the proven strategies and step-by-step tools that have helped top agents like Josh Flagg, Tracy Tutor, Glennda Baker, and us succeed in this exclusive market.

We truly wish we had this opportunity to get one-on-one advice from successful industry leaders when we started out in the business. This is what every agent needs to step into the luxury space with confidence, and we want to help you do it.

Normally, the program is $1500, but with the current special offer, you can receive 25% off your 2025 membership if you are one of the first 50 members to sign up. Join now and take action to make next year your breakthrough year in luxury real estate.

Learn from the Best in Luxury Real Estate!

Elevate your real estate career with Estate Elite! Along with top agents Josh Flagg, Tracy Tutor, and Glennda Baker, get direct coaching from us, James Harris and David Parnes. Gain VIP access to exclusive training courses, live interactive workshops, and a powerful network. Transform your skills in personal branding, marketing, negotiations and much more.

When you join, we’ll teach you how to become an Elite Agent. You’ll learn:

– How to Build a Powerful Personal Brand
– How to Supercharge Your Social Media & Marketing Presence
– How to Justify Your Value & Negotiate Commissions
– How to Build Your Own Team of Superstar Agents
– How to Change Brokerages While Maintaining Relationships
– How to Level Up to High-End Luxury Listings
– How to Prepare for Market and Regulatory Changes

Gain insider knowledge, industry tools, and direct access to leaders in the field—all in one destination. Don’t just sell luxury—live it, breathe it, and master it with Estate Elite. Transform your career today!

Special Offer: Be one of the first 50 new members to join and receive 25% off your 2025 membership.

Join us today!

We’ll be back in your inbox on Tuesday, January 7th, 2025 with the latest information, industry insights, and career-making tips you need to be at the top of your game. 

Before we head out for the year, we want to thank you for helping us build this community from the ground up. It’s been an exciting journey so far and we can’t wait to see what next year will bring. Have a wonderful holiday season. We look forward to seeing you all in 2025!!!

– James and David