Both sides of the story

Our loyal readers know that we always offer up our takes on the biggest stories in real estate, but we want to be clear: we will also present multiple sides to those stories, especially when there is a debate like the one we’re seeing over the clear cooperation rule. 

We know many people in our industry have strong feelings on this subject. In our second story, we discuss the controversy and present some numbers on how deviating from the MLS can negatively impact overall sales revenue.

While we do offer our take, we encourage you to evaluate all the data and come to your own conclusions on what you think is best for our business. 

On that note, let’s get into today’s Blueprint

– James and David

States with the fastest-growing populations

In 2024, the U.S. population grew at its highest rate since 2001, adding 3.3 million people, with nearly all 50 states seeing population gains. That startling fact comes from NAR’s analysis of the latest data released from the U.S. Census Bureau. Here’s what their analysis revealed: 

• International migration accounted for 84% of the overall population growth, with 2.8 million people migrating to the U.S. from abroad last year.

• In terms of domestic migration (the movement of people between areas within the country), Texas led with 85,267 net domestic movers, followed by North Carolina (82,288) and South Carolina (68,043).

• Here are the top 10 areas with the fastest-growing populations in 2024: 

  • Washington D.C. – 2.2%

  • Florida – 2.0%

  • Texas – 1.8%

  • Utah – 1.8%

  • South Carolina – 1.7%

  • Nevada – 1.7%

  • Idaho – 1.6%

  • North Carolina – 1.5%

  • Delaware – 1.5%

  • Arizona – 1.5%

Our take

We never knew that becoming real estate agents would require us to be amateur demographers, but it’s essential to track population and migration trends. They directly affect housing demand, property values, and market dynamics. Developers closely follow migration trends, and so should agents. Population growth signals rising demand and investment potential, while decline can indicate market slowdowns. By staying ahead of these shifts, we can better advise clients, target the right markets, and seize emerging opportunities.

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Entry closes at 6 PM (PST) on February 28, 2025, and two winners will be announced on Instagram on March 4, 2025. Click here to enter!

Off-MLS sellers left more than $1B on the table

Over the past two years, sellers who transacted off the MLS collectively left more than $1 billion on the table, according to Zillow. Their study examined home sales from 2023 and 2024, finding that homes sold off the MLS typically sold for $4,975 less than those listed on the MLS, a median loss of 1.5% nationwide. Here’s more about the effects of off-MLS sales:

• Homes in all price tiers typically sold for less when sold off the MLS, with price impacts generally more severe for lower-priced homes.

• Of the 46 states included in their study, 44 were negatively affected by off-MLS sales

• Sellers in 33 states experienced median losses exceeding 1% when selling off-MLS, and 10 states saw losses greater than 2% off-MLS.

• Sellers in California were most adversely affected by off-MLS sales (median loss of 3.7% or $30,075) followed by New York (-3.7% or $13,749), and Massachusetts (-3.4% or $20,171).

• Sellers of urban homes missed out the most, with a median loss of 2% on off-MLS sales, compared to 1.5% in suburban areas and 0.9% in rural areas.

Our take

There is a debate raging across our industry regarding the clear cooperation rule, a policy established by NAR to promote transparency in real estate listings. It requires real estate agents who are members of an MLS to submit their listings to the MLS within one business day of marketing the property to the public. Zillow and Redfin are strong supporters of it. On the other hand, we think that sellers should be free to list wherever they want, whether on public listing services or not. That said, Zillow’s latest report challenges some of our prior beliefs. We don’t want to simply dismiss it without serious thought. Instead, we want you to be aware of its findings, and to know that we will always do our best to share both sides of a story with you.

Markets with the largest single-family build-to-rent pipelines

J.P. Morgan Asset Management is partnering with Georgia Capital and Paran Homes to launch "Laseter," a build-to-rent (BTR) company focused on single-family rentals in the Southeast. ResiClub reports that Laseter’s first two developments will break ground this year in the suburbs of Atlanta (165 homes) and Nashville (126 homes). 

J.P. Morgan now owns 6,000 single-family rentals in 65 communities, amounting to a portfolio of around $2 billion. Nationwide, 110,727 single-family rentals are currently under construction across 613 communities, according to Point2Homes.

These are the top 10 housing markets with the largest build-to-rent pipelines of single-family homes:

1. Phoenix, AZ — 13,113

2. Dallas, TX — 8,470

3. Atlanta, GA — 6,885

4. Charlotte, NC — 5,368

5. Houston, TX — 4,613

6. Austin, TX — 4,313

7. Orlando, FL — 3,085

8. San Antonio, TX — 2,994

9. Raleigh, NC — 2,934

10. Huntsville, AL — 2,382

Our take

Agents need to watch the build-to-rent trend like hawks. From 2005 to 2020, the share of single-family homes built as rentals grew from 1.6% to 4.5% as the build-to-rent (BTR) model gained traction. The pandemic-era investment boom, driven by cash-rich Wall Street firms, accelerated this trend, pushing BTR starts to 6.9% in 2022 and a record 9.5% in 2023. As we noted before, today, large institutional investments in BTR have slowed since the pandemic housing boom. However, as J.P. Morgan Asset Management shows, the market isn’t dead. It’s alive and kicking.

The news that just missed the cut

• What the “Silver Tsunami” means for California 

• These are the functions of the HUD offices targeted for mass firings

• New rules threatened to upend real estate. Here’s what actually happened. 

• Things shaking up real estate in 2025

• Texas’ #1 luxury real estate agent gives insight into 2025 market

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

As we noted last week, the Spring Season has started. But things aren’t looking rosy. Although many homeowners want to list, a lot of buyers are staying on the sidelines. Their hesitation is understandable. Mortgage rates are hovering around 7% and are forecast not to fall below 6.5% even by Q4. Today, we are going to give three tips on how to handle this development and how to communicate with clients and agents over the next few months:

Master your message on mortgage rates – With mortgage rates remaining high, you need to have a solid grasp on how you want to discuss them with clients. Explain where they are right now and where most forecasters project them to be going. Even though rates are expected to fall, buyers will still need to be smart and savvy about their financing. We’ll be giving you our own detailed recommendations in future editions but, for now, use these resources to show your buyer clients their options. 

Learn how to manage emotions – Clients will always have strong emotions when buying a house. It’s the biggest financial decision most people will ever make in their life, and the rising mortgage rates are only adding to the anxiety. While it’s ok for your clients to be emotional, you need to be steady and even-keeled. When you share good news, stay measured. When you share bad news, stay measured. Guide your clients on how to react. Remember: while there are many factors out of your control, you can control how you react.

Learn to work well with other agents – Real estate is a relationship business with both clients and agents. It takes two to tango and two to make a deal. While clients come and go, agents in your market will be there for a long time. You need to learn how to get along with them so that they’ll want to deal with you again and again. You’ll also find they can become a source of leads as well. So really consider how you treat them, just as you would consider how you’d treat your clients.

To learn more about each of these skills and how to implement them, start here.

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Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“We have two lives, and the second begins when we realize we have only one.” — Confucius

This is a short week, friends, so let’s go after it! Time waits for no one. We’ll see you back here on Friday.

– James and David