Happy New Year!

Welcome to the first edition of “The Blueprint” in 2025!

We want to help you make this year even bigger and better than last year, and we’re going to start it off with a story that can serve as an inspiration for anyone: a look at overall activity in the ultraluxury market. We list the Top 10 biggest deals from last year, and it says a lot that Jeff Bezos is only #10 on the list!

Also, a reminder: if you are looking for some guidance to help you get focused for the new year, we encourage you to sign up for our masterclass for Estate Elite members, which we’ll be hosting on Thursday, January 16th. It’s a great way to get yourself in the right mindset and sharpen your plan of action for your business. For more details on what we’ll be discussing, scroll down past today’s Foundation Plans. In fact, to further encourage you to sign up, we’re offering a 25% discount on Estate Elite membership! 

Now let’s get spring back into action and the first Blueprint of 2025!

– James and David

Ultraluxury market is riding high

The ultraluxury segment of the U.S. housing market experienced another remarkable year in 2024. At least seven single-family homes sold for $100 million or more, surpassing the five recorded in 2023. While the record remains eight sales in 2021, last year’s activity underscores the enduring strength of this exclusive market.

According to The Wall Street Journal, many of 2024’s most expensive transactions occurred off-market, bypassing official listing prices. These high-profile deals featured unique elements, such as a property swap between two affluent buyers and a collaborative purchase by business tycoons Steve Wynn and Thomas Peterffy. Notably, several buyers acquired properties adjacent to their existing homes, further consolidating their ultraluxurious estates. 

Here were the top 10 deals of 2024 by location, buyer, and purchase price:

1. Malibu, CA – Undisclosed Buyer – $210M

2. Palm Beach, FL – Michael Dorrell – $150M

3. Palm Beach, FL –  Daren Metropoulos – $!48M

4. New York, NY – Vladislov Doronin – $135M

5. New York, NY – Undisclosed Buyer – $117M

6. Los Angeles, CA – Undisclosed Buyer – $112M

7. Aspen, CO – Steve Wynn & Thomas Peterffy – $108M

8. Carpinteria, CA – Robert Friedland – $96M

9. Malibu, CA – Laurene Powell Jobs – $94M

10. Miami, FL – Jeff Bezos – $87M

Our take

As we’ve noted before, the luxury market will not be affected by high mortgage rates, especially since cash transactions make up at least half of all luxury sales. As we’ve also noted, wealth transfers will play a pivotal role over the next decade, especially as Millennials and Gen X stand to inherit substantial assets. Over the next 10 years, $31 trillion will be transferred by 1.2 million wealthy people. We’ll be keeping a watchful eye on that.

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Mortgage demand nosedived during the holidays

Total mortgage application volume for the two weeks ending December 27th fell 21.9% compared to the week prior to the period, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index via CNBC. This is typically the slowest stretch of the year. Here’s other data from this period:

• The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances of $766,550 or less increased from 6.89% to 6.97%.

• Applications to refinance a home loan fell 36% from two weeks before, as these numbers are most sensitive to interest rate movements.

• The refinance share of mortgage activity dropped from 44.3% to 39.4% of total applications.

• Even with the spike in mortgage rates, applications to refinance home loans remained 10% higher than the same period one year ago.

Our take

In contrast to the ultraluxury market we mentioned in our first story, the other sectors of the market are struggling. With increasing home prices and mortgage rates, it’s no wonder that 2024 was one of the slowest years for home sales since the 1990s. While sales are projected to number approximately 4.47 million this year, that total would still be well below historical norms. For context, the past two decades have seen an average of 5.15 million annual home sales, with a peak of 7 million in 2005.

Top states that Americans are leaving in droves

Louisiana is the state with the highest percentage of outbound moves, according to Atlas Van Lines’s latest study of relocations from Nov. 1, 2023, to Oct. 31, 2024. They tracked all moves from each state, and ranked which ones had the highest share of outbound moves.

Here are the top five U.S. states with the highest percentage of outbound moves over that period:

1. Louisiana 

2. California 

3. Illinois 

4. South Dakota 

5. New York

Our take

People are moving for a variety of reasons, ranging from economic factors to lifestyle preferences. While some issues can be addressed through smart fiscal and economic policies, others are more challenging and intractable. For instance, the primary reason residents are leaving Louisiana is the lack of jobs and career opportunities. Meanwhile, in California and New York, the high cost of living is the main driver of outmigration. According to Realtor.com, California has the second-highest cost of living, with New York fifth. In Illinois, high taxes are the leading cause of departures, while in South Dakota, the harsh winters and strong winds prompt many to seek milder climates.

The news that just missed the cut

• Surprisingly, housing affordability didn’t worsen in 2024 – the first time in four years that has happened

• Keep an eye on these real estate events for 2025

• Cities where homebuyers have the leverage

• What to expect from mortgage rates and savings accounts in 2025

• Dan Bilzerian cuts $5M from his Vegas mansion listing

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

We strongly believe in starting every year on the best foot possible. That is why we encourage you to sign up for our masterclass for Estate Elite members, which we’ll be hosting on Thursday, January 16th. It’s a great way to get you focused on making big strides this year. For more details on exactly what we’re covering in the masterclass, check them out here. And remember, you get a 25% discount by signing up now.

In the meantime, if you’re new to the business, or just want a few simple refreshers to get you going on the right foot, here’s a list of quick tips to help you hit the ground running:

Don’t overthink it, take action – Don’t get us wrong. We’re huge believers in intentional planning and goal setting. But sometimes agents spend too much time at their desk instead of out in the field. Are you having a minimum of five real estate conversations per day? Are you making connections through open houses, circle dialing, or FSBOs? Are you increasing your circle of influence by getting to know both potential sellers and buyers? That’s what grows your business the fastest.

Don’t let FOMO lead you astray – Don’t compare your success to someone else’s, especially if you’re a new agent. It’s easy to fall prey to this mentality in our social media age, but it doesn’t make any sense. If you’re just starting out, you can’t compare yourself to a 20-year veteran. Instead of focusing on others, focus on yourself and your business. Are you better than yesterday? Are you hitting your goals? If so, that’s what counts.  

Don’t ever let your pipeline go dry – Our loyal readers know we say this a lot. We recommend dedicating at least two hours each day to prospecting. It will turbo-boost your pipeline and ensure a steady flow of new opportunities. The more people you contact, the more opportunities you’re going to generate. As an agent, this is going to be your number-one job. Get to know as many potential sellers and buyers as possible and then connect them. This is what’s key to building momentum and succeeding in this business.

Don’t leave your commission unprotected – All agents need to learn how to protect their commission. Even before the new rules that took effect last August, clients would ask for commission discounts. But that trend has now only accelerated since the NAR settlement. It’s imperative that agents know how to set clear expectations from the start and how to explain alternatives to commission discounts. 

Now let’s go out there and make this year the best one yet!

Learn from the Best in Luxury Real Estate!

Elevate your real estate career with Estate Elite! Along with top agents Josh Flagg, Tracy Tutor, and Glennda Baker, get direct coaching from us, James Harris and David Parnes. Gain VIP access to exclusive training courses, live interactive workshops, and a powerful network. Transform your skills in personal branding, marketing, negotiations and much more.

In fact, on January 16th, 2025, we will be leading a masterclass on “How to Protect Your Commission When Buyers/Sellers Ask for Discounts” to members of Estate Elite.

In this masterclass, we will cover:

• Understanding Why Clients Ask for Discounts

• Setting Clear Expectations from the Start

• Explaining the Risks of Discounting Commission

• Offering Alternatives to Commission Discounts

• Leveraging Your Reputation and Results

• Explaining the Long-Term Financial Impact of Your Services

• Understanding When to Compromise and When to Walk Away

• Handling Discount Requests in Competitive Markets

• Handling Repeat Clients and Referrals with Commission Requests

Normally, the program is $1500, but with the current special offer, you can receive 25% off your 2025 membership. Join now and take action to make 2025 your breakthrough year in luxury real estate.

Gain insider knowledge, industry tools, and direct access to leaders in the field—all in one destination. Don’t just sell luxury—live it, breathe it, and master it with Estate Elite. Transform your career today!

Join us today!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

That’s a wrap on the first edition of 2025!

Never forget: each day is a gift and a new opportunity to lead the life you want. It’s a fresh start to becoming the person you want to be. The mistakes and missteps you’ve made in the past don’t define you. Live as intentionally as you can and be ruthlessly focused on the goals you’ve set out to achieve. You can do it!

Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you back here on Friday!

– James and David