Special guest this week!

We're so excited to announce that Selling Sunset's Jason Oppenheim joined us for our season finale of Rise Above the Ranks. He shares his predictions for the market in 2023, and we talk about how new and seasoned agents can make 2023 an outstanding and successful year (even in a mild recession)!

You don't want to miss this episode because the information will definitely help you level up in 2023!

Check out the episode → Apple | Spotify | YouTube

– James and David

Housing supply makes record jump

Redfin reported that housing supply posted a record increase last week as homes remain on the market longer. The number of homes for sale jumped 15% YoY, and days on market also grew. This indicates that increased housing supply is the result of houses staying on the market longer, not new listings.

Here are the key takeaways:

• The typical home that sold was on the market for 37 days, up from a record low of 17 days in June and up from 28 days a year ago.

• Just 30% of homes sold within two weeks, the lowest share since January 2020.

• Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 15% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase since at least 2015.

Our take

Good agents can make deals happen in this market. Mortgage rates have stabilized slightly, and great homes are becoming available. Homes will sit on the market if sellers are unrealistic. Buyers have more options now. So managing expectations is key. This is your chance to do the extra work to make a deal happen.

Short-term rentals struggling

Airbnb hosts are dropping their rates and dealing with more vacancies in an oversaturated short-term rental market. Demand has declined, and the market has been flooded with properties that investors scooped up and rehabbed during the pandemic. Since August, around 70,000 new rental listings have been added per month. This increased inventory means that each short-term rental property in the U.S. received an average of 6% fewer nights booked.

Our take

Low interest rates added a ton of investors to the short-term rental market. The market has shifted tremendously since these homeowners came into the market, and now they have to adjust. The short-term rental market is very supply-sensitive, so with inflation and people pulling back, this is going to be tough for owners.

Top markets forecasted for 2023

Realtor.com forecasted the top 10 housing markets for buyers and sellers in 2023 and highlighted what these areas have in common. Each of these markets is mid-sized and has nearly half of its buyers coming from out of state. These metros also leverage more government-backed mortgage products, like VA and FHA loans, and avoided the steep price hikes many areas saw in 2022.

Here are 2023’s Top Markets:

1. Hartford-West Hartford, CT

2. El Paso, TX

3. Louisville, KY

4. Worcester, MA-CT

5. Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY

6. Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC

7. Grand Rapids, WY-MI

8. Columbia, SC

9. Chattanooga, TN-GA

10. Toledo, OH

Our take

It’s good to keep an eye out for markets that are poised to be busy in 2023. These cities are all close to big markets, and with remote work, buyers are willing to live a little further to match their affordability. This is such a great opportunity for newer agents looking to make a splash in 2023. It’s hard to predict these things, but having this data is useful if you work near one of these markets.

Schematics

The news that just missed the cut

• These charts put 2023 market forecasts into perspective

• Where women in real estate outearn their male colleagues

• Check out these hot living room design trends

• Zillow wants to offer agents a “super app” in 2023

• Lennar is betting big on single-family rentals

🎧 Rise Above the Ranks

In this week’s Rise Above the Ranks podcast, Jason Oppenheim of Selling Sunset joins James and David to talk about what we expect to see in the real estate industry for 2023 and how agents can set themselves up for success in the new year.

Here are our predictions about 4 key questions for 2023:

• What will happen with interest rates? Thankfully, we think we've seen the worst of interest rate inflation. In 2023, we expect to see rates in the 5-6% range, which is a healthy, stable range and pretty good, historically-speaking.

• Will 2023 be a buyer's or seller's market? We expect 2023 to be a well-balanced market, and we are thrilled to finally see some equilibrium after the wild ride we've been on since the pandemic.

• What are the best lead generation practices for 2023? Jason thinks that open houses are one of the best ways to generate leads, and we couldn't agree more! You have lines of potential buyers walking through the property, and you should be making introductions with each one.

• What do you do during a mild recession? Whether you're a new or seasoned agent, you've got to do your homework on every listing. This way, you can make accurate price recommendations to sellers so their homes don't sit on the market in a tough economy.

Want the full scoop? Check out the episode → Apple | Spotify | YouTube

P.S. We were incredibly fortunate to shoot this podcast at the new Pendry Residences here in West Hollywood, so be sure to check it on on YouTube!

Q&A

You ask, James and David answer!

We’ll be back next week with another answer to a real reader question. Submit yours here!

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

That’s all for this edition of The Blueprint! We won't have any more podcast episodes coming out this year, but we can't wait to start up Season 2 in January!

Have a great week, and we’ll see you Friday!

– James and David

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