10-on-10 SPECIAL EDITION

This week we’re bringing you something a little different: A look back on the 10 biggest real estate shifts of the past year—and what’s happening right now. From market swings and rate cuts to major lawsuits, policy shifts, and industry shakeups, we’re recapping what happened and what’s next, so you’re prepared to close one of the most volatile years in recent real estate history stronger, smarter, and with an eye on 2026.

January 2025

Releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

What Happened:

Earlier this year, rumors of taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of conservatorship turned into a viable plan. Treasury and FHFA discussions about how to “release” the mortgage giants without creating market turbulence led to frameworks and task teams

What’s Next?

The current administration has released a plan for a $30B IPO—the biggest IPO in history—to start the privatizing process. No official action has been taken yet, but an IPO by year-end isn’t out of the question.

February 2025

NAR Settlement Surprise

What Happened:

At the start of 2025, just six months into the NAR settlement agreement, many expected commission rates to be steadily declining—especially at the luxury level. 

What’s Next?

In Q2, the average buyer’s agent commission actually increased from 2.38% to 2.43% across the board, and to 2.52% for homes under $500,000. That, plus increasing home prices, means agents were taking home more—not less, like the market predicted—in the post-settlement real estate world. While commissions haven’t dropped as expected, the field is shifting as buyers and sellers are more aware of their room for negotiation.

March 2025

Housing Shortages

What Happened:

New data showed that despite the spring uptick in new home construction, the US remains millions of homes short of demand. At the current build rate, analysts estimated it would take years—if not a decade—to bridge the gap. Even with time, additional affordable housing policies would be needed. 

What’s Next?

August’s construction data showed slowing momentum. Permits fell 3.7% month-over-month and 11.1% year-over-year, while new starts dropped 8.5%. Don’t count on an inventory surge from new construction this fall unless you have relationships with local developers.

April 2025

Rocket’s Big Move

What Happened:

In April, Rocket made waves by acquiring Mr. Cooper and Redfin, a move that put it one step closer to controlling the entire homebuying ecosystem—from search to mortgage servicing.

What’s Next?

Those mergers were just two of the many consolidations and acquisitions that shifted the market this year, including the Compass-Anywhere integration making headlines this month. With big platforms joining forces in a market where the slow sales pace is making it harder for independent firms to survive, we’re likely to see some big changes in lead flow services, tech stacks, and back-end tech tools.

May 2025

Downgraded

What Happened:

In May, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1—sparking a jump in bond yields and pushing mortgage rates back over the psychologically loaded 7 percent barrier. That move rattled buyers and slowed the already-sluggish market. 

What’s Next?

The 7% panic was short lived. Thanks to the Fed’s recent rate cut, the average mortgage rate has dropped from over 7% in May to between 6.2% – 6.4% over the past few weeks—and may fall further heading into winter.

June 2025

Sales go Stale

What Happened:

In June, the U.S. housing market showed signs of fatigue. Inventory rose higher than ever, and a growing share of for-sale homes went “stale” from sitting too long without going under contract. 

What’s Next?

As of September, the total number of active listings and median days on market have increased. While that’s a typical trend going into fall, it means longer listing times and inflated asking prices are leaving sellers frustrated. When supply is higher than current demand, persistence is the only winner.

July 2025

International Demand Heats Up

What Happened:

After years of decline, cash-heavy foreign buyers started making a marked comeback in U.S. real estate. Fueled by a strong dollar, global recovery, and the appeal of U.S. property stability, international purchases jumped by 44% YoY—especially in warm-weather states, metro areas, and higher-end markets.

What’s Next?

International capital continues to flow into the US in 2015, pushing liquidity and competition, especially in markets with high desirability. For agents in luxury, vacation, or gateway markets—and particularly in Florida, California, Texas, and New York—networking with global buyers (who are likely to have high-value referrals) is the best way to capitalize on this shift.

August 2025

Savings or Safety?

What Happened:

In Redfin’s summer homebuying survey respondents ranked personal safety as their #1 non-negotiable when looking at homes. Nearly 3 in 4 buyers said low crime is a requirement and 68% prioritize low natural disaster risk—but 22% said they would consider compromising safety for affordability. 

What’s Next?

Buyers’ priorities aren’t shifting away from safety anytime soon—if anything, the trend is intensifying. As climate events become more frequent and insurance premiums rise, more buyers are asking about flood zones, fire risks, and evacuation routes. And with AI-powered listing tools and school rating integrations becoming more common, buyers can easily filter out homes that don’t meet their safety standards before ever contacting an agent.

September 2025

New Record High

What Happened:

Property insurance costs have quietly become one of the biggest affordability threats in today’s market. While most buyers brace for higher interest rates and taxes, the fast-rising cost of insurance—now averaging over $2,370 annually—is catching many off guard. In disaster-prone states like California, South Carolina, and Texas, premiums have spiked by double digits due to increased wildfire, flood, and hurricane risks.

What’s Next?

This affordability squeeze isn’t easing anytime soon. As extreme weather events become more frequent, insurers are expected to continue hiking rates—and in some markets, even pulling out altogether. Heading into 2026, agents may need to play a more proactive role in helping buyers understand the full cost of homeownership early on. Partnering with local insurance professionals, staying current on regional risk zones, and factoring premiums into preapproval conversations could be the difference between a closed deal and an unaffordable one.

October 2025

The Rate Wait

What Happened:

After holding steady for most of the year, the Federal Reserve made its first interest rate cut of 2025 in September—lowering the overnight borrowing rate by a quarter point to a range of 4.00%–4.25%. Economists now anticipate up to two more cuts before year’s end, with the next one likely arriving after the Fed’s October 28–29 meeting.

What’s Next?

A rate cut doesn’t immediately bring mortgage rates down—but it does move the market. Mortgage lenders tend to price in expected cuts ahead of the official announcement, so rate drops often begin days or weeks before the Fed meets. That means buyers and agents could start seeing lower rates throughout October, with another potential dip in December.

HANGS & HAPPENINGS

CREtech New York | New York City, NY | October 21 – 22
Over two action-packed days, you’ll connect with top C-suite executives, industry leaders, and dealmakers from the world’s largest real estate firms, all shaping the future of the built environment. As the Flagship Event of NYC Real Estate Tech Week, this is your opportunity to make meaningful connections and walk away with tangible business outcomes.

NAR NXT 2025 | Houston, TX | November 14 – 16
Gain laser-focused business intelligence and insights on AI, interest rates and inventory. Access strategic insights, tactical tools, and innovative solutions to highlight your mission-critical role for today’s ever-changing market.

Inman Connect | New York City, NY | February 3 – 5, 2026
The biggest names in real estate share their secrets to success with our attendees in curated sessions that will equip you with the skills to level up.

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