New podcast episode

One of the best parts of this newsletter has been receiving so much feedback from all our readers. We truly enjoy getting to hear what you have to say, receiving your questions, and doing our best to answer them.

We know many of you out there are always looking for advice on how to break into the luxury market. In our latest episode of our podcast, Rise Above the Ranks, we tackle that subject. The episode is less than 20 minutes, but we packed as much info and insight into it as we could. 

Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans for a brief summary of the topics we discussed.

We hope you enjoy the episode, and please keep sending all your questions and feedback our way!

And now, on with today’s Blueprint!

– James and David

Inflation cools as recession fears rise

US consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in February, according to the latest CPI report published by the BLS on Wednesday. Consumer prices rose 2.8% year-over-year, down from January’s 3% YOY increase, according to the Labor Department. A 2.9% rise had been predicted by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. 

Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) rose 3.1%, the lowest annual increase since 2021 and lower than the 3.2% expected by economists. 

Normally, a good CPI report like this one would have been good news, but it’s not as encouraging as it initially looks. Here’s why:

• Wednesday’s report largely predates President Trump’s recent tariff, immigration, and DOGE actions. That means the full effect of the new tariffs will be captured only in future reports.

• Fears of a recession have only increased since the report was published because consumer sentiment fell nearly 10% in the University of Michigan’s February survey, and consumer spending in January had its largest monthly drop in four years.

• Both Redfin and Moody’s chief economists estimate the odds of a recession this year are around 35–40%.

Our take

We keep a close eye on broad economic trends because they inevitably affect housing markets. Thankfully, we believe the housing market is relatively protected from this potential downturn since most homeowners aren’t over-leveraged. They have locked in low mortgage rates and they’re sitting on high levels of equity. That means they’re less likely to stop paying their mortgages simply because they’re underwater. They can also sell their home in case of distress. Renters, however, are more likely to bear the brunt here, because most recessions hit lower-income individuals harder. Rental demand may decrease and drive rents lower.

Buyers are looking, but aren’t buying yet

Prospective homebuyers are hitting the pavement as mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level since mid-December. Applications to refinance a home loan (which are most influenced by weekly rate changes) increased 16% week-over-week and were up 90% year-over-year. Meanwhile, applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 7% week-over-week and were up 4% YOY, according to CNBC. 

Here are the other key takeaways:

• The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances, $806,500 or less, decreased last week to 6.67% from 6.73%.

• Average loan sizes were higher, with the purchase loan amount hitting $460,800, the highest in the survey dating back to 1990

• Google searches of “homes for sale” are up 10% year-over-year, reaching their highest level since July.

• Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a seasonally adjusted measure of home tours and other buying services from Redfin agents–hit its highest level since the start of the year.

However, it must be noted: the uptick in house hunting hasn’t yet translated to an uptick in home sales. Pending home sales fell 6.1% YOY during the four weeks ending March 9, on par with declines over the last few months, according to Redfin.

Our take

The current trends may seem contradictory, but they follow a clear pattern. Mortgage rates are declining as economic uncertainty grows, driven by investor concerns over tariffs and a slightly weaker-than-expected job market. Lower rates have encouraged some hesitant buyers to reenter the market, yet home sales haven’t significantly increased. Many prospective buyers are still weighing whether reduced mortgage payments are enough to justify purchasing a home in an uncertain economy. Job security concerns and fears of a potential recession continue to hold many Americans back. People are being pulled in different directions. We will simply have to wait and see how all these trends play out.

Best counties for buying single-family rentals

Nationwide, real estate investors can expect to make a 7.45% return on their single-family home investments this year. That’s according to ATTOM’s latest “Single-Family Market” report, which ranks the best U.S. markets for buying single-family rental properties in 2025. 

Based on the median rents and median home prices across 361 counties in the country, ATTOM determined that the yield investors can expect to earn this year has declined in 60% of the counties. However, it also identified 28 “SFR Growth” counties where the potential 2025 annual rental yields exceed 10%.

Here are the counties where investors can expect the highest potential rental yields on single-family investments:

1. Suffolk County, NY – 18%

2. Atlantic County, NJ – 16.8%

3. Jefferson County, AL – 13.6%

4. Mobile County, AL – 12.9%

5. Ector County, TX – 12.5%

Our take

Home prices are the main reason landlords aren’t seeing as much return on their investment. They are rising faster than rents in slightly more than half of the country. From 2024 to 2025, median single-family home prices increased at a higher rate than median three-bedroom rents in 54% of the markets analyzed. In most cases, the gap exceeded three percentage points, causing rental yields to drop. Despite this trend, single-family homes can still be profitable investments, especially in major metropolitan areas. As you can see above, the top five counties with the highest rental yields are not in small, overlooked towns but rather in well-known, densely populated markets

The news that just missed the cut

• Compass in talks to buy Berkshire Hathaway’s Home Services of America

• Trillions in U.S. home value face major risk from fire, flood, and wind

• This open house formula generated over 300 leads in a year

• Here’s what the “More Home on the Market Act” is all about

• Take a look inside the world’s largest 3D-printed housing development

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Recently we published a short but punchy episode of our podcast, Rise Above the Ranks. We cover a topic that many of you have been asking us about – how to break into the luxury residential space. The luxury real estate market might seem intimidating, but success is more achievable than many agents think. In this episode, we discuss essential strategies for building credibility, branding, networking, and leveraging market knowledge to transition into high-end real estate. Here’s a quick overview of what we discuss in the episode: 

Building Credibility and Trust – Credibility is the foundation of success in real estate. It’s built through experience, ethics, and a strong personal brand. Whether selling a $1 million or $100 million property, agents should conduct themselves professionally, treating all clients with the same level of respect and honesty. One of the most effective ways to build trust is by saying "no" when necessary. Agents must advise clients against poor investments rather than prioritizing personal commissions. Long-term credibility will always outweigh short-term gains.

The Power of Personal Branding – A strong, authentic personal brand is crucial for attracting high-net-worth clients. There is no single way to succeed in the luxury market. Different agents thrive with different styles. The key is to stay true to one's personality and strengths. New agents should find mentors who align with their values and study how successful professionals brand themselves. Clients can sense authenticity, so it’s vital to build a reputation based on honesty and individuality rather than trying to imitate others.

Networking and Market Knowledge – Networking should be organic rather than forced. Every environment—whether social gatherings, business meetings, or even school events—offers potential client connections. While some agents thrive at formal networking events, others succeed simply by being in the right place at the right time. Regardless of approach, having deep market knowledge is non-negotiable. Successful agents continuously follow market trends, track sales data, and stay informed to provide clients with accurate, valuable insights.

Overcoming Fear and the Road to Success – Breaking into luxury real estate requires perseverance, consistency, and fearlessness. You’re going to make mistakes. But don’t let that stop you! Every mistake you make is a learning opportunity. Don’t wallow in them, and also, don’t forget them either. Learn from them. This is a highly-competitive market, so you really have to do whatever you can to get a leg up. If you’re transitioning into luxury markets, prepare to work harder than the competition, seize every opportunity, and be fearless.

We have a lot more to say on this subject. That’s partly why we joined forces with our friends and partners to create Estate Elite. If you really want to take your real estate game to the next level, we strongly encourage you to try it out. You won’t find a better coaching and training program anywhere. See here for more details.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Whatever you are not changing, you are choosing.” – Laurie Buchanan

Every day is a fresh chance to build the life you want. Perfection isn’t required — choosing to improve is.

– James and David