The post-Election market

Like many people, we are tracking to see how the market continues to react to the outcome of the election. As you’ll see in our first story, we are seeing both good signs and one concerning sign about home sales.

In our second story, we also present results of a survey which shows how the election results are impacting buyer behavior. While we do typically avoid anything political in this newsletter, we do think this survey is worth bringing to your attention.

Finally, as we head toward the other major November event, Thanksgiving, we give you a few of our best tips on how to use this time to check in with clients and stay on their radar.

– James and David

Big spike in existing home sales

In October, existing home sales surged 1.6% month-over-month, the strongest monthly growth since January 2022, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4,179,346. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased by 1.7%, marking the first annual uptick since November 2021. That’s according to Redfin’s latest update. Here are the key takeaways from October:

• Total home sales (existing and newly built) rose 1.6% MoM and 3.4% YoY to the highest level in more than 18 months on a seasonally adjusted basis.

• The median home sale price rose 5.2% YoY to $435,313, the biggest annual gain in six months.

• Pending sales fell 1.1% MoM on a seasonally adjusted basis

• Over the past weekend, the number of homebuyers requesting services through Redfin’s platform was approximately 25% higher compared to the same weekend last year. This marks the most significant year-over-year increase since the market downturn in 2022.

Our take

While this report offers plenty of encouraging news, the drop in pending home sales is concerning. We’re not surprised to see the drop, given that last month’s spike in mortgage rates wiped out much of the purchasing power buyers regained over the summer. Unfortunately, mortgage rate volatility is unlikely to subside anytime soon. Rates are expected to fluctuate as investors assess the implications of the Trump presidency, and they may remain elevated if policies like higher tariffs and tax cuts move forward. While the uptick in homebuyer service requests is promising, it’s too early to determine whether this signals a sustained trend in demand. We’ll have to wait and see.

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Election has some Americans considering moving

22% of Americans are more likely to move post-election, with 26% of those potential movers considering moving to a different state and 36% of them considering relocating to another country. That’s according to a recent survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, commissioned by Redfin and conducted by Ipsos between November 7th and 8th. Here are some of the key results from the survey:

• 21% of the survey respondents are less likely to move post-election

• Among those more likely to consider moving post-election:

  • 17% are more inclined to buy a new home

  • 12% are more inclined to sell their current home

  • 13% are more inclined to rent a home

• 25% of first-time homebuyers were waiting on the outcome of the election before buying

• 26% of Democrats and 21% of Republicans are considering a move to a different state

• 27% are hesitant to live in areas where the majority's political views differ from theirs

Our take

As we said up top, we typically don’t talk politics in this newsletter, but it can’t be denied that the election is affecting where some people choose to live. State laws and community values are driving many individuals to seek neighborhoods that reflect their own beliefs. As agents, it's crucial to stay attuned to this trend and thoughtfully consider these preferences when serving potential clients.

The biggest second-home markets in the country

Second homes make up roughly 3% of all housing units in the United States, with an estimated 4.4 million such properties nationwide, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Researchers at ResiClub determined which counties have the highest proportion and largest number of housing units designated for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use, looking at the data collected from 2018 through 2022.

Here are the top 5 counties with the highest share and highest number of second homes:

Our take

Many of these destinations are well-known to us, but even we were surprised to discover the sheer number of second homes in Riverside County. However, it’s worth noting that while second-home sales remain a key segment of the market, the sector’s boom came to a halt in 2022 due to rising interest rates and the return to offices. For instance, Sotheby’s reports that 557 second homes were sold in Teton County—home to Jackson Hole, WY—in 2021. By 2023, that number had dropped to just 264, marking a decline of more than 50% in only two years.

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The news that just missed the cut

• Credit data shows: There’s no housing crash coming

• Homebuilder M&A is soaring

• How to turn your real estate business into a listing machine

• 20% of NFL fans say team loyalty affects their home search

• 1 in 3 U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 live in their parents’ home

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

We’re just a little more than a week away from Thanksgiving. It’s a great time to reconnect with clients and wish them a happy holiday. But the holidays aren’t the only way to make organic contact with your clients. Today we’d like to give you some concrete examples of how to check in with clients in an authentic and “non-salesy” way.

Home anniversaries – In addition to remembering your client’s birthday or other special days, contact them on their home anniversary if you helped either sell or purchase their home. Home anniversaries are a fun way to say hello and a great way to stay on their radar.  Your clients will appreciate the thoughtfulness, and you’ll forever be the one who remembers what makes their home uniquely special. 

Market updates – We believe you should be sending an update at least every quarter. That’s the bare minimum!  Start with a quick MLS search to find everything that has sold in your client’s neighborhood in the last six months. Also show them what’s currently on the market.  Pair that info with a video like this—it’s a fantastic way to stay memorable, and your clients will always be curious about their home values. 

Send thoughtful gifts – Especially during the holidays, it’s an entirely appropriate and great way to stay in touch with past clients. Use services like Pop By Co. or Dare & Co. to simplify the process for you. All you need to do is send them a CSV or Excel file with your client’s names and addresses, and they will send out gifts on your behalf. Be genuine in your messages. Your clients will remember!

For more excellent tips on how to stay connected with your clients, start here and here.

To learn more about Estate Media, visit their website.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

That’s a wrap on this edition of The Blueprint!

Success in life comes from first taking ownership of your life and choices. Take action to become who you want to be. Nobody else can do it for you. 

Have a great week friends and we’ll see you here on Friday!

– James and David