The market reaction

We're keeping a close watch on how the markets are responding to the Trump administration’s new tariffs. In our first story, we break down the immediate reaction and how it's influencing mortgage rates.

As always, we’ll continue to monitor developments and unpack what they mean for our industry.

At the same time, we’re focusing on other key aspects of your business. We cover T3 Sixty’s newly released rankings of the top residential brokerages and kick off a two-part series on choosing the right brokerage to join. Scroll down to today’s third story and our Foundation Plans section for more.

– James and David

Mortgage rates fall on account of recession fears from tariffs

Mortgage rates fell sharply Thursday following the Trump administration’s tariff announcement, according to CNBC. Here are the key takeaways from the financial news network:

• The average rate on the 30-year fixed loan plunged 12 basis points to 6.63%, according to Mortgage News Daily. That put it at the lowest level since October. On the same day last year, the 30-year rate was 7.07%.

• Bond yields dropped as investors sold off their stock holdings and diverted their capital to U.S. treasuries. Mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. 

  • As of today, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.05%. and the “spread” between the mortgage rate and the 10-year yield is 258 basis points. For reference: the spread is the difference between the mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield. If the 10-year yield is 4.0% and the mortgage rate is 6.5%, the spread is 250 basis points (2.5 percentage points).

  • Historically, this spread averages around 1.7–1.8 percentage points over the long term. A widening spread can signal market stress, higher perceived risk, or reduced investor appetite for mortgage-backed securities, while a narrowing spread can suggest easing credit markets or strong investor demand for mortgages.

Our take

Mortgage rates are expected to remain volatile in the coming days as countries negotiate responses to newly announced tariffs. Several factors are pushing and pulling rates in opposing directions. On one side, slower economic growth, heightened recession risks, and stock market sell-offs could lead to falling bond yields, pushing mortgage rates down. On the other hand, prolonged inflation and the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates could pull mortgage rates up. Whether rates fall or rise depends on whether inflation remains temporary or not. Right now, mortgage rates are falling as yields fall. Tell your clients to capitalize while they can. Now is the time to refinance and jump on the house they want to buy!

Inventory of unsold new homes spikes

The inventory of fully built, unsold new homes has reached a 15-year high. According to Resiclub, there were 119,000 unsold completed new homes as of February 2025, the highest number since July 2009, when inventory hit 126,000. Weaker-than-expected demand has pushed this number up nationwide, with Sun Belt states seeing some of the largest increases.

For context, here’s the number of unsold completed homes in February for each year since 2018:

• 2018: 63,000

• 2019: 75,000

• 2020: 77,000

• 2021: 39,000

• 2022: 31,000

• 2023: 70,000

• 2024: 88,000

• 2025: 119,000

Our take

The spike in unsold new home inventory carries important implications across the board. For buyers and investors, the increased supply, especially in the Sun Belt, means more negotiating power and the potential for builder incentives that weren’t on the table just a few years ago. For home sellers, more new construction on the market means added competition. In many areas, that could drive up resale inventory and put downward pressure on prices. For agents, this shift is an opportunity. Builders with rising inventory may become more motivated to work with agents to bring in buyers, creating new partnerships and commission opportunities in markets where demand has cooled.

The top brokerages in the U.S.

T3 Sixty has just released a preview of its report ranking the largest brokerage firms by sales volume in 2024. The full report will be published on April 9th. For the fourth year in a row, Compass has taken the No. 1 spot as the top brokerage in residential real estate. The biggest mover was The Real Brokerage, which doubled its sales year over year and vaulted into the fifth spot, up from No. 10 in last year’s rankings. 

Here are the top 10 brokerages in the country, ranked by their total annual sales, along with their year-over-year sales volume change:

1. Compass – $231B (+25.3%)

2. Anywhere Advisors – $186.7B (+6%)

3. eXp Realty – $152.7B (+6.3%)

4. HomeServices of America – $136.6B (+2.1%)

5. The Real Brokerage – $42.4B (+100.1%)

6. Douglas Elliman Realty – $36.4B (+5.8%)

7. Howard Hanna Real Estate – $34.5B (-0.3%)

8. Redfin – $29.5B (+7.2%)

9. Side – $24.6B (+11.8%)

10. Peerage Realty Partners – $24.5B (+3.4%)

Our take

These rankings aren’t just a scoreboard, they’re a signal. For agents, they reveal where the industry is headed and where new opportunities may be emerging. Compass holding the top spot for the fourth straight year shows the power of scale and consistent brand positioning. But the real headline here is The Real Brokerage’s explosive 100% growth, signaling how newer, tech-forward models can disrupt even the most established players. However, we should note the firms dominating the list vary widely in structure, culture, and agent support. Some offer traditional brick-and-mortar benefits, while others lean heavily into virtual models or agent equity. If you're considering a switch or just starting out, don’t just chase a big name. Ask yourself which model aligns with how you want to build your business. Scroll down to today’s Foundation Plans for more detailed advice on this subject.

The news that just missed the cut

• What the tariffs mean for home prices and mortgage rates

• Agents are making more money despite the tough market 

• This is NYC’s priciest home for sale

• What to expect when selling a home when the mortgage hasn’t been paid off

• Use these responses to shut down housing market fears

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

The brokerage you join significantly impacts your pay, access to technology, and career development. It’s important to choose wisely. Today, we begin our two-part primer on the essentials that every agent needs to know when considering a brokerage:

What is a real estate brokerage, and what do brokers do? – A licensed real estate brokerage is a legal entity, such as a sole proprietorship, partnership, LLC, or corporation that employs a licensed real estate broker. The broker, or broker-owner, acts as the principal who oversees, directs, and is responsible for all licensed activities and real estate services of the brokerage. Until they get their broker’s license, every agent has to work underneath the auspices of a broker of record. Many agents never get a broker’s license. They simply remain agents and work underneath a broker for their entire careers.

What are the different types of residential brokerages? – Typically, brokerages fall into four categories:

• Independent, not affiliated or franchised (e.g., Baird & Warner)

• Independent franchised companies (e.g., Howard Hanna)

• A national or regional organization or its subsidiaries, franchised (e.g., BHHS)

• A national or regional organization or its subsidiaries, not franchised (e.g., eXp)

Remember: just because brokerages fall into the same category, that doesn't mean they'll be similar. Here are some important differences to consider when evaluating brokerages: 

• Commission structure — traditional vs. discount brokerages 

• Virtual or technology-based models

• Limited-service brokerages

• Boutique firms

• Exclusive buyer brokerages

• Exclusive seller brokerages

• Limited-function real estate referral companies

• Brokerages that specialize in specific market segments (e.g., luxury homes, trophy properties, new home specialists, bank REO properties, waterfront properties, land, and farms)

How do agents get compensated? – Most agents are independent contractors whose earnings are reported on IRS form 1099. Pay is typically based on a fixed “percent split” of the sale commission. For example, if a brokerage charged a 3% commission on a $500,000 house sale (i.e., $15,000 commission), an agent on a fixed 50/50 percent split would receive $7,500 with their brokerage firm keeping the other $7,500.  

Here are some other types of commission plans:

• Tiered commission plans that increase an agent's commission split as they increase their sales production

• Capped commission splits that allow an agent to receive 100% of the commission after a set threshold, or "cap," is met

• Commission plus annual profit sharing

• 100% commission minus a monthly fee and/or a per-transaction fee, paid to the brokerage

Less commonly, agents may be employed by a brokerage and earn a salary, with or without a share of profits or a production bonus. 

Before choosing a brokerage, make sure you know exactly how you will be compensated, and make sure you get it in writing. 

We’ll continue with the second part of our series in our next edition, but start with these resources before you choose a brokerage.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Push yourself because no one else is going to do it for you. Your future is created by what you do today. Take charge and build your own life. Be your own biggest supporter. Self-motivation is the key to success.”— Leonal Mind

A lot is happening in the world right now, friends. Much of it is outside our control. What we can control, though, is how we respond. So focus on what matters and what aligns with your goals, and go after it. The rest will follow and take care of itself.

– James and David