Unusual housing market data

One of the biggest changes since we began in this business isn’t just the amount of information now at our fingertips, it’s the type of information. We can now access facts and figures that we never thought possible.

In our second story, we have a great example of what we’re talking about. 

Zillow recently put out a report that lists the markets where the majority of buyers are from out of town. You read that right – markets where more buyers are out-of-towners compared to locals!

It’s that type of info most agents couldn’t get their hands on until only a few years ago. Agents can use it to not only dazzle potential clients, but calibrate their marketing to buyers in their area. It’s truly info you can use.

With that, let’s get on with today’s Blueprint!

– James and David

NAR revises its 2025 forecast downward

When the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its 2025 housing market forecast in November, it was among the more optimistic voices. However, at its latest quarterly forecast summit, NAR revised its outlook downward. It now expects existing-home sales to increase by just 6% YOY, down from its original forecast of 7%-12%. Also, it now expects new-home sales to increase 10%, down from 11%.

Here’s a breakdown of NAR’s key revisions:

Our take

This downward shift shows how affordability challenges continue to affect home sales. Rising prices are clearly a factor here. The NAR previously projected home prices to rise by 2% in both 2025 and 2026, but now those estimates are at 3% and 4%, respectively. Generally, this brings the NAR”s projections more in line with other industry forecasters, specifically in terms of existing home sales. NAR’s projection of 4.3 million existing home sales is right at the average of all the major forecasters, with Realtor.com the lowest at 4 million.

Where out-of-market buyers are the majority

In most housing markets, the majority of homebuyers are local. For instance, Zillow reports that 81% of people interested in homes in the New York City metro area are local residents. But that’s not always the case. In some markets, less than half of the interested buyers are local, meaning the majority are from out of town or outside the area.

Below are Zillow’s top 10 metro areas where out-of-town buyers make up the majority of homebuyer interest, ranked by the percentage of interest coming from outside the market.

1. Hartford, CT: 59%

2. New Orleans, LA: 57%

3. Riverside, CA: 55%

4. Jacksonville, FL: 54%

5. Orlando, FL: 54%

6. Raleigh, NC: 53%

7. San Antonio, TX: 53%

8. Birmingham, AL: 53%

9. Nashville, TN: 52%

10. Sacramento, CA: 52%

Our take

We wanted to highlight this report because it offers a great opportunity for agents to showcase their business savvy and local expertise. Read the entire report and you can dig even deeper past what we’ve noted above. For example, Zillow’s report reveals where home shoppers across the country are looking to buy. Buyers from Los Angeles make up 3% of those interested in Nashville homes, while shoppers from New York account for 8% of the interest in Miami. There is a lot more intel like that in this report. Use it to market yourself to out-of-town buyers considering a move to your area. With this info, agents now can micro-target their audience in ways that were nearly impossible just five years ago.

Where Zillow expects to see the highest price appreciation

As we mentioned last week, Zillow now forecasts that home prices will rise by just 0.8% between February 2025 and February 2026. This marks the second straight month that Zillow has downgraded its 12-month outlook (it was at 1.1% last month). 

However, the company doesn’t expect price trends to be uniform across the country. In fact, it anticipates that some markets will experience notable home price gains.

Among the 300 largest metros it tracks, Zillow projects the strongest price appreciation over that period will occur in the following 10 metro areas.

1. Atlantic City, NJ: +5.1% 

2. Knoxville, TN: +4.7%

3. Kingston, NY: +4.7%

4. Torrington, CT: +4.6%

5. Bangor, ME: +4.6% 

6. Rochester, NY: +4.4% 

7. Vineland, NJ: +4.4%

8. Concord, NH: +4.2% 

9. Norwich, CT: +4.1% 

10. Fayetteville, AR: +3.9%

Our take

Take a close look at Zillow’s forecast. While its overall assessment is reasonable, we don’t fully agree with some of its specific conclusions. For instance, Zillow predicts that home prices will rise across much of Florida over the next year, but we’re not convinced. Florida has seen a notable increase in active listings and months of supply over the past year, which often signals potential price softening. Home prices for both single-family properties and condos are already declining in many Florida markets. So, review what Zillow says about your specific market, and form your own opinion. In fact, if you disagree with their outlook, we suggest showcasing that contrast in your marketing.

The news that just missed the cut

• What happens to mortgage rates if conservatorship ends for Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?

• CoreLogic is now rebranding as Cotality

• What the top 1% of agents are doing to own 2025

• Lennar says that the spring season is off to a slow start

• Keep this in mind when working with wealthy clients

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Getting a lead is just the start of the chase. Did you know real estate agents convert leads to listings or buyer exclusives typically after six attempts, but most agents only follow-up only 2.7 times? That just shows that most agents need to do more follow-ups. In today’s edition, we’re going to give you some tips and strategies on how to follow up effectively. 

Leverage local market insights – One of the worst approaches an agent can take is to simply check in with a generic message. To truly engage, leverage local market insights. We suggest using your local MLS to determine what’s happening in your market, and then sharing that information with potential buyers and sellers.

Showcase pertinent home sales trends – Another effective tactic is to highlight relevant trends in home sales, such as average days on market or list-to-sales price ratios. Ask yourself questions like, what are the trends in home sales right now? What’s the average amount of homes buyers are looking at? All this data is on the MLS, and you should share this valuable information.

Determine your potential client’s timeframe – It's important to recognize that if a prospect isn’t motivated to buy or sell, excessive follow-ups may be counterproductive. Understanding their timeline will help you to follow up appropriately and avoid turning them off by being too aggressive.

Understand your client’s financing options – To a surprising extent, so many home buyers think that they need to put 20% down. Many real estate agents have said the same thing. This is not true. Make sure you know all the financing programs in your area and be ready to share this information. You could be the agent who finally makes it possible for them to buy a home.

We obviously can’t emphasize enough the value of following up in real estate. To be inspired and to learn how to do it well, watch this.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results.” – Warren Buffett

The secret of getting ahead is getting started, friends. Don’t wait to be perfect — you’ll be waiting forever. Planning has its place, but progress only happens when you take action. Post the video. Make the call. Host the open house. Whatever it is, do it now. Momentum doesn’t come from thinking — it comes from doing. Start messy, and improve as you go. The perfect time? It’s today.

– James and David