Start your engines!

Here we go! We’ve passed Labor Day and now we’re headed into the home stretch to the end of the year. We want to help you make the most of these next four months, and of course, help you help your clients do the same.

As you’ll see in our first story, the latest data shows it’s a good market for buyers. But do they know that? We know many buyers out there are still skittish about getting off the sidelines.

In today’s newsletter, we want to help you get your buyers moving. We’ve got lots of solid data and good advice that could help spur them into action. 

And that leaves you wanting more, we just dropped a jam-packed new episode of our podcast Rise Above the Ranks where we hit every urgent topic facing our industry and what they spell for the future.

Okay, let’s officially kick off the rest of the year, and this edition of The Blueprint!

– James and David

Price cuts reach highest August level in 5 years

In August, 19.3% of listings saw price reductions, the highest amount for August since 2018. Also, the number of homes actively for sale was up 36.2% year-over-year, marking the 10th consecutive month of growth. That’s according to the latest update from Realtor.com. Here’s other key data from August:

• Active listings are at their highest level since May 2020

• Mortgage rates fell to 6.38%, their lowest level in 18 months

• Median home prices fell from $439,950 in July to $429,995

• While overall housing stock rose, newly-listed homes dropped 0.8% from last year’s levels, breaking a nine-month growth streak

• The typical home spent 53 days on the market, up 7 days from the same time last year.

• All four regions of the U.S. saw an increase in active home listings

  • South: +46%

  • West: +35.7%

  • Midwest: +23.8%

  • Northeast: +15.1%

Our take

Our current housing market is definitely less wild than what we’ve seen in recent years. Right now, it’s leaning toward an advantage for most buyers. This data backs it up. In fact, August marks the fifth month in a row in which homes spent more time on the market compared with the previous year. But, as we discussed in our last edition, a lot of buyers are not capitalizing on this situation. Agents need to light a fire under them. We elaborate on how to do that in today’s Foundation Plans below. 

Realtors expect an uptick in buyers this fall

While no one is predicting a massive wave of real estate activity this fall, agents are anticipating at least a slight increase in buyer traffic over the next three months as a result of interest rate cuts. That is one of the main conclusions from the latest confidence index survey based on responses from 1,640 Realtors conducted by the National Association of Realtors. Here are some of the key takeaways:

• 16% of respondents expect a year-over-year increase in buyer traffic in the next three months, up from 13%.

• 17% of respondents expect a year-over-year increase in seller traffic in the next three months, flat from one month and one year ago

• 89% of buyers purchased a home in a suburban, rural, or resort area in July, up from 85% a year ago.

• First-time homebuyers represented 29% of sales in July, level with June and down slightly from a year ago (30%).

• The percentage of cash sales (27% in July), distressed sales (1%), and sales of homes intended for vacation use (4%) were all similar to June and July 2023.

• The average number of offers dropped from 3.0 in July 2023 to 2.7 in July 2024.

Our take

We also expect an uptick in buyer activity following the rate cuts. That said, we want to hone in on the last stat above. The average number of offers has slipped. Now that should light a fire under buyers. That shows our current situation is clearly in their favor. They can get many concessions from sellers whose listings are growing stale. But this situation won’t last long once mortgage rates drop. The number of interested buyers will increase, as will the number of bids on homes. So, if they want to avoid the competition, now is the time to take action. 

Boost Your Real Estate Success with Homes.com

Your Listing, Your Lead

Over 100 Million buyers uses Homes.com, the fastest growing home search site. Put your best profile forward with a Homes Pro membership—amplifying your real estate brand with premium tools, priority visibility, and enhanced exposure across the internet with Homes.com.

[Signup Today!]

Markets with the greatest risk of a housing downturn

According to a recent report by ATTOM, areas around New York City, Chicago, and inland California are most at risk of a housing downturn. Of the 589 counties studied, those three areas had 24 of the 51 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable to housing market troubles. In contrast, areas in the South and Midwest are less vulnerable. 

The quarterly report analyzes county-level data on affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment. Here are the top 10 counties at risk:

1. King County, NY

2. Richmond County, NY

3. Essex County, NJ

4. Passaic County, NJ

5. Union County, NJ

6. Cook County, IL

7. Kendall County, IL

8. McHenry County, IL

9. Will County, IL

10. Lake County, IN

Our take

Don’t view this report as a prediction; instead, view it as a risk assessment. See how relevant the factors are to your market. Different factors impact downturn risk in different counties. Homeownership costs like mortgage payments, property taxes, and insurance are relevant for some markets, but not for others. For example, unemployment also factors into ATTOM’s study, and many at-risk markets are in California. This kind of report is useful intel for agents to help gauge the risks they might face.

The news that just missed the cut

• When property investors want out, this new type of bargain hunters rush in

• How to use open houses to quadruple your buyer leads

• A $70 million teardown smashes Fort Lauderdale’s home price record

• Use these tactics to maximize your follow-up strategy

• How Coldwell Banker’s #1 agent worldwide sold $9B in real estate

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

We’re back with another terrific episode of our podcast Rise Above the Ranks. This week, we explore the current state of the industry and the wide-ranging implications of the NAR verdict and the upcoming rate cuts. Plus, we discuss how we’ve managed to do $600 million in sales so far this year despite the unique challenges we are facing. Now since that’s just a small taste of great topics we discuss, we wanted to use this space to call attention to two important subjects we cover:

Creating urgency for clients, especially buyers – Even though the current market conditions favor buyers, many of them are sitting on the sidelines. Soon, mortgage rates are going to drop, demand is going to go up, and those buyers are going to need to raise their offers. Right now, the number of offers is actually decreasing. Buyers can capitalize on lower-asking prices and then refinance later when mortgage rates drop. Until Apple created the iPhone, nobody thought they needed one. Like Steve Jobs, the master marketer, we need to tell buyers why they need to make a move now. 

Know your worth and demonstrate your value – Since the NAR settlement, there has been much talk of agents becoming “unnecessary.” This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Even before the NAR settlement, a buyer could’ve hired a lawyer to represent them when purchasing a home. However, most buyers didn’t do that because they know that no matter how well-versed lawyers in the law, they are not familiar with the nitty-gritty details that go into a home purchase. We’re talking about all the comps, the property details, the personalities of the counterparty agents, whether or not a listing recently just came out of an unsuccessful escrow, etc. You’ve got to be in the industry day-to-day to know that stuff. That’s what us agents bring to the table, and we shouldn’t hesitate to say it.

This is just the tip of the iceberg in this episode. We cover a ton! We hope you give this episode a listen because we think you’ll get a lot out of it. Listen and watch here.

To learn more about Estate Media, visit their website.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

We’re in the home stretch for the year now. Let’s make each day count. 

Remember: each day is a gift and a new opportunity to lead the life you want and to become the person you want to be. The mistakes and missteps you’ve made in the past don’t define you. Live as intentionally as you can and be ruthlessly focused on the goals you’ve set out to achieve. You can do it!

Thanks for reading, and we’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

– James and David