Uncertain times

We know the tariff changes have caused a lot of uncertainty in the market, and now we’re seeing more data to back that up.

In today’s second story, we share the results of a Redfin/Ipsos survey which reveals that more than half of the respondents say that the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs has caused them to hold off making a major purchase like a home or a car.

While that’s the big takeaway, we recommend reading below for more details, as the survey gives us a lot more insight into how the tariff news is affecting buyer behavior in very different ways.

– James and David

Zillow expects home prices to dip

Zillow’s latest market update says that while national home prices aren’t headed for a crash, they are expected to dip. Home prices are forecast to drop 1.7% between March 2025 and March 2026, based on the Zillow Home Value Index. Here are the key takeaways from March:

• New listings jumped 31.5% month-over-month and 8.5% year-over-over. However, they still remain -19% lower than pre-pandemic levels.

• 23.5% of listings had a price cut, up from 21.6% in February and 20.6% a year ago. 

• 24.6% of homes sold above their list price, up from 22.3% in January, but down from  30.3% last year.

• Home values are up year-over-year in 34 of the 50 largest metro areas, with the highest gains in San Jose (5.5%), Cleveland (5.3%), Providence (5.2%), New York (4.8%), and Hartford (4.7%). The largest drops were in Austin (-4.6%), Tampa (-4.5%), San Antonio (-2.7%), Phoenix (-2.5%), and Dallas (-2.4%).

Our take

There are two main reasons why Zillow continues to downgrade its national home price outlook: supply and affordability. With more active listings hitting the market, buyers have more options and more leverage. That brings prices down. At the same time, affordability remains a major problem. The home price surge during the pandemic, combined with the mortgage rate hike, has caused many potential buyers to choose to rent longer. The result? Softer demand and slower price growth. That said, not every forecaster is as bearish as Zillow. As of March, Fannie Mae still expects home prices to rise 1.7% in 2025, while Wells Fargo projects a 3.0% increase. Remember: forecasts aren’t the final word, so keep a close eye on your market’s trends.

Tariffs affecting buyers in very different ways

24% of Americans have canceled plans to make a major purchase (like a home or a car) due to the new tariff policies, while another 32% are delaying them. That’s according to a national survey of 1,004 U.S. adults, commissioned by Redfin and conducted by Ipsos between April 10th and 14th. Here’s what else the survey respondents said:

• 9% said they’re planning to make a major purchase sooner than expected, while 8% said they already made a major purchase sooner than expected

• 60% of those aged 55+ said the tariffs make them less likely to make a major purchase this year, compared to 54% of people aged 18-34 and 50% of people aged 35-54

• 23% of those aged 18-34 said the tariff policies make them more likely to make a major purchase, compared to 15% of people aged 35-54 and 4% of people aged 55+

• 51% said they have an emergency fund to cover housing payments in a crisis. 56% of those respondents said they can cover up to 6 months of mortgage payments.

Our take

Buyers are rattled by these tariffs, and it’s showing up in the data. But here’s the nuance: younger buyers (especially 18–34) are the most likely to see opportunity in the current market, even as older buyers pull back. That means agents who stay proactive and focused on first-time buyers or millennials could still see steady activity, even in a cautious climate. Be proactive to see where the opportunities are.

Markets with the highest effective property taxes

ATTOM’s latest analysis shows the average property tax on a U.S. single-family home increased 2.7% year-over-year, reaching $4,172. This came despite a drop in overall property taxes on single-family homes, which totaled $357.5 billion in 2024, down 1.6% from 2023. 

The report also found that states in the Northeast and Midwest carry the heaviest property tax burdens due to higher home values and steeper tax rates, New Jersey tops the list, with an average bill of $10,135 for a single-family home, nearly 10 times higher than West Virginia’s $1,027, the lowest in the country. 

Here are the states that had the highest effective property tax rates in 2024:

1. Illinois: 1.87%

2. New Jersey: 1.59%

3. Connecticut: 1.48%

4. Nebraska: 1.32%

5. Ohio: 1.31%

6. Iowa: 1.24%

7. New Hampshire: 1.23%

8. Kansas: 1.22% 

9. Vermont: 1.22%

10. Pennsylvania: 1.16%

Our take

In today’s uncertain climate, intel like this is invaluable. Clients are going to be cost-conscious, not just about a home’s price, but also property taxes, HOA fees, and homeowners’ insurance. Make that part of your buyer consultations. That way, your clients know the true cost of homeownership. That will go a long way toward earning their trust and guiding them toward the right decision.

The news that just missed the cut

• How agents are using ChatGPT to grow their business

• The least expensive home in the Hamptons

• Builders already seeing costs rise despite tariff pauses

• Homes are selling at the slowest pace in 6 years

• For scripts and other resources, use eXp’s free agent toolkit

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

Today, we conclude our two-part course on negotiations. In Part 1 on Tuesday, we gave you general advice on how to negotiate. Now we’re going to give you specific tips for how to improve your negotiating skills. 

1. Know all the contracts and contract options allowed in your state – If you can’t clearly explain a contract, its different outcomes, and the options for buyers and sellers, you’re doing yourself and your client a disservice. It’s important to know all state regulations before you even get to contract. It’s our job as agents to know what every single document says and what it means to the consumer. This is the first crucial step in making sure you are fully prepared to approach the negotiating table.

2. Use the 1-3-1 mindset to organize your strategy – The 1-3-1 mindset is a mental road map to handle issues your clients may face. Whenever they encounter a problem (the first “1”), help them clarify the exact issue they are facing. Then you can typically give them 3 options: walk away from the deal, accept the problem as is, or find a compromise or solution. Your recommendation (the final “1”) is how you solve the problem. This is such a great approach because it not only guides you, it guides your clients, and that is ultimately what we want to do through the buying and selling process.

3. Think through the options before meeting your client – As we mentioned in Part 1, you need to understand your client’s interests and the interests of the party on the other side of the table. As in chess, there are only certain moves you and them can make, so you can game it out and strategize for anything that might happen. You don’t want to negotiate on the fly. Rehearsing your responses will help you react in the moment.

4. Don’t rush or pressure your clients – While there can be deadlines in this business, it’s also important to give your clients as much time as possible when you can. Letting the situation breathe, and giving them space to calm down and think, can help them make logical decisions, instead of letting their emotions get the best of them. 

We can assure you these four strategies combined will help you approach your next negotiation with confidence and peace of mind for both you and your clients.

For more on negotiations, watch this from fellow agent Tom Toole. His excellent post inspired and stimulated our thoughts on the matter.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

“Nothing can bring you peace but yourself..”— Ralph Waldo Emerson, Self-Reliance and Other Essays

These are uncertain times, and clarity can be hard to come by. If something’s on your mind — questions, concerns, or just a gut check — don’t hesitate to reach out. We want to be a resource for you. Wishing you a calm and peaceful weekend, friends.

– James and David