Staying ahead of the game

Our loyal readers know we’re always trying to read the tea leaves to stay ahead of the market, and today’s edition is full of information that can help us do just that.

We take a look at updated market forecasts, areas where home equity is rising and falling, and metros where homebuilding is growing fast and not-so-fast.

This is the type of data that can help us agents stay one step ahead of the competition, and figure out our approach for the rest of the year.  

On that note, make sure to check out today’s Foundation Plans. We’re continuing our series on the top reasons why agents fail in this business. We’re lucky enough to have avoided many of them, and we want to help you do the same.

So let’s dig into today’s Blueprint!

– James and David

Fannie Mae and the MBA update their forecasts

Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association just released updated forecasts for the rest of 2025. While both expect moderate progress, their projections reflect a market still weighed down by high rates and affordability pressures. Here’s a summary of what they project for the housing market and the overall economy by the end of Q4 2025: 

• Mortgage rates 

  • Fannie Mae: 6.4% 

  • MBA: projects 10-year Treasury rate to hold at 4.3%

• Home sales

  • Fannie Mae: 4.85 million

  • MBA: 4.30 million

• Home price growth:

  • Fannie Mae: 2.8% (previously 4.1%)

  • MBA: 1.3%

• GDP Growth:

  • Fannie Mae: 1.3%

  • MBA: 0.5%

• CPI Inflation:

  • Fannie Mae: 3.0%

  • MBA: 3.2%

• Unemployment:

  • Fannie Mae: 4.2%

  • MBA: 4.3%

Our take

We won’t sugarcoat it: if these projections are accurate, it’s going to be slow-going in the market for a while. That’s why it’s essential to set proper expectations with both buyers and sellers. Sales and price growth will be modest, but steady. This market favors consistency over flash: show up, stay visible, and guide clients with clarity. Those agents who help buyers and sellers adapt to the current climate can still make some meaningful deals.

Home equity rebounds in Q2

After three straight quarters of declines, home equity made a comeback in Q2. According to ATTOM, 47.4% of mortgaged residential properties were equity-rich (meaning owners owed 50% or more of their home’s estimated market value). That’s up from 46.2% in Q1, reversing a downward trend that began after equity-rich levels peaked at 49.2% in Q2 2024. 

Meanwhile, the share of homes considered “seriously underwater” (where the mortgage exceeds the home’s value by at least 25%) held steady at 2.7%, up slightly from 2.4% a year ago.

Here are the states where home equity rose and fell the most year-over-year:

Our take

Equity remains one of the few bright spots in today’s market. This rebound proves that buyer demand is still strong enough to support home values, even as inventory rises. But the gains aren’t universal. Equity is still shrinking in former boom markets like Florida and Arizona, highlighting how local trends now diverge sharply. Agents, take this as a cue for your marketing. Equity-rich homeowners have the means to make a move, even in our high-rate, high-price environment.

Where homebuilding is growing fast and not-so-fast

ResiClub just made it a lot easier to compare homebuilding activity across the country. Its latest report tracks single-family building permits in 240 metro areas, adjusted for population size. It gives us an apples-to-apples look at where new construction is heating up or lagging behind.

Here are the metros with the highest and lowest rates of single-family permits authorized in 2024 (per 1,000 residents):

Our take

If you want to know where future inventory might pop up, follow the permits. This data shows builders are still flocking to fast-growing, lower-cost markets, especially across the Southeast and Florida. Meanwhile, high-cost, high-regulation metros like San Francisco and much of Connecticut continue to see sluggish activity. For agents, this map is a cheat sheet. It shows where competition for listings may heat up and slow down. For investors, it signals where new supply could soften rent growth, or where tight construction could support long-term price appreciation.

The news that just missed the cut

• The income it takes to be in the top 1% of earners in every U.S. state

• The Fed holds rates steady as markets eye September cut

• Scale AI Co-Founder Lucy Guo pays nearly $30 million for L.A. mansion on spec

• Avoid this mistake when negotiating

• This is one of the priciest deals of the year in the Hamptons

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

In our last edition, we listed four of the biggest mistakes agents make in this business. Well, unfortunately, that was just HALF the list! To help you avoid all that trouble, we’re continuing our breakdown today. Here are four other major reasons agents fail, and how you can avoid those same pitfalls:

5. Lack of lead generation and marketing – Many agents fail to prioritize consistent lead generation and effective marketing strategies. Generating leads is the lifeblood of any real estate business, and agents who neglect it find themselves high and dry. The problem is many agents don’t create a comprehensive marketing plan, or they rely too heavily on outdated methods or word-of-mouth referrals. We don’t rely on just ONE method, we rely on several, no matter how big or small, even door-knocking! Use any method in line with your values and how you want to present yourself. It can’t be said enough: never let your pipeline go dry! 

6. Having a 9-to 5 mentality – Many new agents enter the field expecting to work standard hours, only to discover that clients often need assistance during evenings, weekends, or at other unconventional times. Successful agents understand that they need to be available whenever their clients need them for showings, negotiations, or just to get on the phone and answer a question. Those who stick to a rigid schedule miss opportunities, lose clients, and fail to meet the demands of a fast-paced market. You’ve got to be flexible!

7. Lack of measurable goals –  You can’t just have goals, you need goals you can measure. That’s how you track progress (or the lack of it). Many agents fail because they don’t set realistic, actionable objectives, such as setting a specific number of new leads to generate per week or a target number of transactions per month. Instead, they operate reactively, hoping for success rather than planning for it. This means they’re basically flying blind! Make sure you have goals that you can track with concrete numbers and stats. 

8. Poor financial management – Real estate income is often irregular, with months of high earnings followed by periods of little or no income. Many agents fail to budget accordingly, spending lavishly during good months and struggling to cover expenses during lean times. Additionally, they often overlook the need to reinvest in their business, whether it’s for marketing, continuing education, or professional tools. Poor financial management not only creates unnecessary stress, but also limits the ability to scale your business and build your future, even past your career! We can’t tell you how many agents we know who get behind on their taxes and don’t plan for retirement. Never lose sight of the bottom line.

What do you think? What’s holding you back? What questions do you have? Drop us a line – we want to hear from you as well as be a resource for you.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

Remember: each day is a gift and a new opportunity to lead the life you want and to become the person you want to be. The mistakes and missteps you’ve made in the past don’t define you. Live as intentionally as you can and be ruthlessly focused on the goals you’ve set out to achieve. You can do it!

Have a wonderful weekend, friends, and we’ll see you back here on Tuesday!

– James and David