A Tale of Two Markets

Living in Los Angeles, we’re very used to the fact that pretty much everything is more expensive here, from homes to meals to gas. But this is not actually the case around the country–prices can vary wildly from city to city.

This is why it’s so crucial for agents to keep an eye on both national trends and local trends. In two stories today, we show you why the current state of home prices truly depends on your area. While buyers do have an advantage overall, there are many places where sellers are holding their ground.

Also, make sure to check out today’s Foundation Plans, where we give you the second part of our takeaways from this great new resource for agents from Tim and Julie Harris.

And now let’s get into today’s Blueprint!

– James and David

Existing home sales vs new construction sales

In August, existing home sales were below pre-pandemic levels in almost every market. In fact, existing home sales were -28% below pre-pandemic sales compared to August 2019. By contrast, new construction home sales were 32% above pre-pandemic sales compared to five years ago. These numbers are from Resiclub’s analysis of Zillow data.

Our take

This highlights a critical, but often overlooked point: the new construction sector operates without a constraint like the lock-in effect seen in the existing home market. Homebuilding functions more like a commodity, with builders prioritizing volume. As long as market demand remains strong enough for builders to maintain profitability, they will continue constructing homes, even in the face of rising interest rates. While mortgage rates are expected to decline in 2025, new construction will remain a key source of transactions for agents in the coming year

Top 10 markets where home prices have increased the most

Although buyers have the advantage in many metros, with asking prices dropping in more than half of the 50 largest markets (see our next story), sellers still have the advantage in many cities because there are significant list price increases in these metros. In fact, median prices have risen more than 10% in some of the country’s top metros compared to last year. 

Home sellers increased their listing activity in September, with 11.6% more homes newly listed on the market compared to last year, reaching a three-year high on the heels of falling mortgage rates and the Fed’s 50 bps rate cut. 

Here are the top 10 metros where listing home prices are up the most in terms of YOY price growth, according to Realtor.com:

1. Rochester, NY: +13%

2. Milwaukee, WI: +11.4%

3. Cleveland, OH: +9.3%

4. Memphis, TN: +8.5%

5. Philadelphia, PA: +8.4%

6. St. Louis, MO: +7.1%

7. Buffalo, NY: +6.8%

8. New York, NY: +6.3%

9. Detroit, MI: +5.7%

10. Virginia Beach, VA: +2.8%

Our take

This is important data to share with sellers who might think that buyers have all the power right now. Listing now is still a good decision, especially if it makes sense for your market. As we said up top, we always encourage agents to stay on top of both national and local data, and these numbers are a good example of why that’s the case.

Boost Your Real Estate Success with Homes.com

Your Listing, Your Lead

Over 100 Million buyers uses Homes.com, the fastest growing home search site. Put your best profile forward with a Homes Pro membership—amplifying your real estate brand with premium tools, priority visibility, and enhanced exposure across the internet with Homes.com.

[Signup Today!]

Top 10 markets where home prices have fallen the most

In more than half of the 50 largest markets, median list prices have decreased year over year. At their peak, median home prices were $445,000 in June 2023; now they are $425,000, a decline of 4.49%. This is good news for buyers who have faced affordability issues. Even more interestingly, home prices are falling in the most desirable housing markets.

Here are the top 10 markets where prices have fallen the most in annual percentage terms, according to Realtor.com's September housing market update:

1. Miami, FL: -12.4%

2. Cincinnati, OH: -9.5%

3. San Francisco, CA: -8.9%

4. Kansas City, MO: -8.4%

5. Austin, TX: -6.6%

6. Jacksonville, FL: -6.1%

7. Denver, CO: -6%

8. Orlando, FL: -5.6%

9. Tampa, FL: -5.5%

10. Nashville, TN: -5.4%

Our take

One important note here: this data was collected before Hurricanes Helene and Milton ripped through several eastern and southern states, including Florida, home to four of the cities on this list. But when we pull back to a longer view, we can see what happened there. The pandemic/remote work boom drew residents to Florida, and builders started building fast. That added inventory helped bring the median price down. We also saw this happen in popular cities in the Midwest and the South such as Kansas City and Nashville.

The news that just missed the cut

• The top real estate lead generation companies ranked by Housingwire.com

• Why many agents are less satisfied with MLSs after the NAR settlement 

• This insurance provision can help with living expenses after a natural disaster 

• Park City Board of Realtors is no longer requiring agents to follow the Clear Cooperation Rule

• The real estate portfolios of NFL QBs

Foundation Plans

Advice from James and David to win the day

In today’s edition, we conclude our two-part series summarizing the terrific advice from Tim and Julie Harris in their excellent new resource which helps agents build a better, more efficient business. You can read part one of our series here. 

1. Create a daily success schedule – Achieving success in real estate often means pushing yourself to tackle tasks you may not always enjoy, especially when the timing isn’t ideal. It’s never easy to negotiate tough deals, ask sellers to lower their prices, call FSBOs, or inform buyers they’ve lost out on a property. To make all these tasks more manageable, develop a daily success routine filled with actions that will move your business forward, and commit to completing them consistently.

Here are some recommended daily activities proven to drive real estate success:

• Review your finances.

• Engage in meaningful real estate conversations with as many people as the number of transactions you aim to close this year.

• Practice immediate, thorough follow-up on 100% of your leads.

• Show appreciation to those who matter to you.

• Schedule a new, prequalified appointment before noon.

• Knock on doors or call at least one expired listing.

• Provide transaction updates to all pending clients.

• Dedicate at least one hour to exercise.

• Meet three new people and discuss real estate.

Your schedule should never be a mystery to you. You should know what you are doing each day. Have a plan of attack and energetically execute from the get-go.

2. Develop mental toughness – Success in any business demands mental resilience, but in real estate, where no two days are the same, unexpected challenges always arise. It’s so crucial to learn how to stay grounded when stress, frustration, or uncertainty try to take over. This is truly one of the keys to long-term success in our industry.

3. Use the best scripts & presentations – You may think scripts make you sound less authentic, but instead of viewing them that way, think of them as training tools. Many people can’t come up with things to say and presentations to pitch on the fly, especially new agents thrust into unknown situations. Scripts are a useful way to prepare yourself for any situation. Just as firefighters prepare by simulating difficult scenarios, agents need to rehearse for any conversation they might have, especially the more difficult ones. As Tim and Julie say, “Scripts work. Every professional you know uses one, from the pilot on your plane to the doctor you’re seeing next week to your kid’s teacher starting out their day, scripts are there to keep you on track. To make your scripts work for you, memorize, internalize and personalize them.”

To learn more, have a look at the entire resource.

To learn more about Estate Media, visit their website.

Just in Case

Keep the latest industry data in your back pocket with today’s mortgage rates:

Success in life comes from first taking ownership of your life and choices. Take action to become who you want to be. Nobody else can do it for you. 

Have a great week friends and we’ll see you here on Friday!

– James and David